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[Music]

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Chain of events. Cause and effect. We

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analyse what went right, and what went

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wrong, as we discover that many outcomes

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can be predicted, planned for and even

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prevented. I'm John Chidgey, and this is

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Causality. Causality is part of The

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Engineered Network to support our shows

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including this one, head over to our

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Patreon page and for other great shows

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visit https://engineered.network/ today. "The

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Fog" In 1952 for 5 days in London

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England experienced what has been

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referred to as the killer fog. The great

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smog of London, the big smoke or simply

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The Fog. Since London's settlement and

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often romanticised in the novels of Sir

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Arthur Conan Doyle as Sherlock Holmes

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would make chase during foggy London

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evenings, London has suffered from

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regular, thick heavy fogs. Many of the

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heaviest fogs were caused by the local

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topography in conjunction with

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semi-regular anti-cyclones that

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inevitably led to temperature inversions.

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During temperature inversions a pocket

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of air is contained within another and

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are characterized by stagnant air masses

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that are colder than usual...air

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being trapped at the ground level. Such a

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temperature inversion formed in the

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London area

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during Thursday the 4th of December, 1952.

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At 3:00pm the fog began to form

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noticeably and workers at the dockyards,

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with crane operators perched high above

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the ground, reported by 4:00pm that

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afternoon, that they could no longer make

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visual contact with the workers at

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ground level and works on the docks were

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abandoned for the day at that point. The

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worst of the fog hit in the early hours

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of the morning of Friday the 5th of

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December, 1952. Visibility had decreased

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further until it reached a recorded

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minimum of only 3ft, just under 1m.

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All primary forms of

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transportation were cancelled.

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There are no buses on the roads and no

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trains above the ground,

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although the London Underground subway

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service did continue to operate. Those

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that were game enough to drive, had to do

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so by poking their heads out of the side

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door window, because the fog had left a

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slick on the windscreen that distorted

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what little visibility there was and

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that could not be cleared effectively by

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their windscreen wipers, leaving nothing

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more than a smudged slick on the

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windscreen. Ambulances were unable to

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retrieve the increasing number of people

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that had succumbed to the conditions. And

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most sick people had to make their way

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on foot as best they could to nearby

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hospitals. Some ambulances did make it

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through the fog, but they did so with a

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person leading the way through the fog

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ahead of the ambulance, holding a bright

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burning torch above their heads to show

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them a safe path. The smog seeped into

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buildings and in a particular large areas of

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buildings like theaters and auditoriums

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caused most shows to be cancelled due to

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poor visibility indoors of the stage or

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the screen. People began to notice a grey

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film forming on surfaces indoors as the

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day's progressed in the fog. The fog was

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reported to have an acrid stinking

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acidic taste and smell. It was warm to

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the skin. Some reporting that it felt

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like a warm soft blanket. At night the

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street lighting was unable to penetrate

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the fog to even reach eye-height, let alone

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ground level. Many people that had lived

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through the blackouts of World War 2

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years earlier during the Blitz,

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commented that the nights had been

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blacker than the blackouts

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of the war. The fog finally lifted

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Tuesday the 9th of December, 1952 lasting

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a total of 5 days. However on the 8th of

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December the government had already

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recorded almost 4,000

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deaths as a direct result of the smog,

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with 100,000 reporting respiratory

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distress. Shortly after the incident

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Harold McMillan the Minister of Housing

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and Local Government and later Prime

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Minister of the United Kingdom, was

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insistent that had been a wholly natural

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disaster for which nothing could have

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been done to prevent it. Many Londoners

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had come to accept fogs in their City

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and this incident was the final straw.

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Most didn't and couldn't believe the

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official position and rejected that

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nothing could have been done. So what

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caused so many people to die? Sulfuric

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Acid particles were formed when Sulfur

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Dioxide combined with Nitrogen Dioxide

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in the water droplets of the fog. It

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became concentrated when the water

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particles evaporated during daily cycle,

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producing a mist of airborne acidic-oily

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particles. The acid when breathed in

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irritated, burned and inflamed

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animal tissues and the oil made it

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extremely difficult to remove. The

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majority of deaths stemmed from Hypoxia,

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most commonly referred to as suffocation,

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as a result of 2 primary factors. The

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first was excessive pus and mucus

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production from lung infections caused

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by breathing in smog particles. The

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second, swelling of the primary and

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secondary airways to the lungs causing

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irritation from breathing in the fog. The

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acids in the fog caused chemical burns

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in the lungs, alveoli and bronchi, leading

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to an immune response which in many

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cases escalated into Bronchial Pneumonia

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and Purulent Bronchitis. It's true that

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many of those that died in the disaster

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were those that were immunologically

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exposed, the young and the elderly and in

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some cases some with pre-existing

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respiratory conditions. So now we know

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why it caused so many people to die. What

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caused the fog in the first place? We

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have to go back to the beginning...for

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London at least. Many started by thinking

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it was the Industrial Revolution,

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hundreds of years previously.

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Certainly they'd been warning signs of

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the calamity to come. The burning of coal

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for heating, boiling of water for steam

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engines and factories, for transportation

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in trains and ships. They had no

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filtration on their exhaust outlets, and it

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carried with it a soot particles that

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reduced visibility amongst other

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chemicals.

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Since coal had been mined to fire

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furnaces of all sizes for hundreds of

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years, it had been found that some coals

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were both either higher or lower grades,

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meaning high grade coals produced more

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heat and less smoke, they burn more

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cleanly, leaving less residue when their

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fuel had been burnt through. Increasing

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demand for coal to fuel the industrial

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revolution played a significant role.

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Open fireplaces with coal and wood to

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burn created large amounts of soot and

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the vast majority of houses in London

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had fireplaces and the population

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density was so great that it was a huge

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contributor to this incident. Officially

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blame was directed to the collective

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individuals rather than industry, blaming

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the cold weather at the time and people

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burning more coal in their home open

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fireplaces for causing the disaster. And

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whilst technically this was the biggest

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contributor, it certainly wasn't the

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whole problem. Official fallout maps of

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the soot following the incident showed

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the largest concentrations of soot in

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the predominant air-direction downwind

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of 3 of the major coal-fired power

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stations in the London area at the time,

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being

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Suffolk, Battersea and Kingston. These

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3 power plants were approved by the

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government for construction in the city

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over a decade earlier, with the final

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plant brought online in 1948, 4 years

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before the disaster. Interestingly the

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Battersea Power Station was resisted by

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the royal family itself, specifically

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taking time to write to the Prime

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Minister of the time expressing their

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concerns about introducing toxic gases

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into this densely populated London area.

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The Battersea Power Station was designed

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with the capacity of 400MW and

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when completed consumed 1,000,000 tonnes

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of coal each year after its final

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expansion. The exhaust fumes from the

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other power stations all used a new

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technology called "scrubbers," that were

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designed to reduce Sulfur emissions. The

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scrubbers used water and alkaline sprays

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over a catalyst of Iron Oxide which

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theoretically, converted Sulfur Dioxide

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into Sulfuric Acid, prior to emission

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into the atmosphere. However it proved to

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be ineffective in use and the system was

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removed from service in the 1960s

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although, primarily because the

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wastewater had been discharged into the

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Thames and this was actually causing

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significant environmental damage to the

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rivers ecosystem. Financially the

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government also contributed to the

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disaster in an indirect way. The British

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government at the time was bankrupt, and in

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an attempt to settle their debts they

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were selling the highest grade coal that

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Britain produced overseas, to bring in

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more money. At the same time they didn't

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want to restrict local industry that was

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capable of generating revenue and

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helping to pull the country out of debt,

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hence this redirection of the

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highest-grade of coal and lack of will

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to impose any restrictions on industry

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meant that the lower grade coal that

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emitted the most smoke and pollutants

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was all that was left for the local

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market, be that industrial or personal.

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Not only were they burning more coal

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than ever before, but they were burning

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the dirtiest coal that they had. The

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final contributor was the push for buses,

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and that was happening the world over. As

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part of the transition to buses and

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whether you believe conspiracy theories

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or not, the buses were unconstrained by

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tracks and electrical overhead wires or

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embedded power cables and were supposed

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to relieve traffic congestion (so was

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their sales pitch at the time.) Years

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later though, studies showed that there

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had been no improvement in traffic flow

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from the removal of the trams and

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introduction of the buses. The last

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electric tram was removed from service

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in London on the 5th of April, 1952 only

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8 months before the incident. All the

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trams had been replaced by nearly 8,000

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diesel buses. The diesel buses at the

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time were running on a much lower grade

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diesel fuel mixture than that of today.

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That was also higher and sulfur content.

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The perfect storm of events then...perhaps

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led to what was a huge death toll. The

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government had approved 3 large

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coal-fired power stations to be built in

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central London.

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Ineffective scrubbers on the power

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stations didn't significantly curtail

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their pollution. The post-war fallout had

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left the country in debt with a

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government drive to push for industrial

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production not to be held back.

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Selling high-grade coal to get the

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country out of debt, left only low-grade

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coal locally. Electric trams were removed

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in favor of higher polluting diesel

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buses. Cold weather at the time meant

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more homes burnt more coal to stay warm

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and a temperature inversion trapped a

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cold air mass in the Thames Valley for

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nearly 5 days. Most disturbingly

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however it had already happened before.

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In 1880 an estimated 2,000 people had

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died due to excessive smoke in London

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under a similar temperature inversion. A

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parliamentary committee was formed at

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the time and reported with

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recommendations to better control local

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industries spurred on by the Industrial

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Revolution from spewing smoke into the

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local air. These were mostly ignored and

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eroded over subsequent decades, as

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industry pushed forward. Starting on the

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27th of October, 1948 and lasting 4

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00:12:54,990 --> 00:12:57,659
days in Donora, Pennsylvania during the

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winter, the yellow smog was so thick that

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you couldn't see your hand at the end of

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your arm. The smog was described as a

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deep yellow saffron colour and made your

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eyes burn and water, and 20 people died

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and 7,000 became sick as a direct result

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of that smog. The Donora incident

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specifically directly drove the 1950

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International Air Conference.

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The conference called for more smoke

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control in living areas and better

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regulation of industry. In the United

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Kingdom the Housing Minister had blocked

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the recommendations following the

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conference. With a bit of further thought

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and researched through, historical

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00:13:38,649 --> 00:13:41,139
records it became clear that London's

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fogs are in fact the result of

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industrial development since the 1800s

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but even before in medieval times,

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deforestation and fires burning in the

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London area, began the ethos that London

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was a foggy area. It isn't and it wasn't

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really at least not especially. Certainly

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00:14:04,360 --> 00:14:06,159
the topography helped to amplify the

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00:14:06,159 --> 00:14:08,440
effects of air pollution, but before

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00:14:08,440 --> 00:14:10,870
those times there were no such fogs

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00:14:10,870 --> 00:14:13,419
recorded of that density or regularity.

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So the truth is that we (human beings)

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created the fogs of London. Those fogs

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00:14:22,000 --> 00:14:23,320
were written about by Sir Arthur Conan

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Doyle and painted by Monet, and they were

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our own doing. The final death toll 11

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months following the incident, the

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00:14:32,649 --> 00:14:34,960
official investigation confirmed that

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00:14:34,960 --> 00:14:37,090
yes 4,000 had died during the

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00:14:37,090 --> 00:14:39,000
immediate timeline of the incident,

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00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:42,009
however a further 8,000 died

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00:14:42,009 --> 00:14:44,679
from complications directly related to

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the fog with a timeline ending in late

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February some 2 months following the

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00:14:49,179 --> 00:14:52,360
event. 4 months after the report was

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00:14:52,360 --> 00:14:55,120
released it was amended down by that

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00:14:55,120 --> 00:14:57,669
8,000 deaths claiming those

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00:14:57,669 --> 00:14:59,470
that had died after the fog had cleared

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00:14:59,470 --> 00:15:01,570
were in fact victims of an influenza

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00:15:01,570 --> 00:15:04,210
epidemic instead and not the fog. A

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counterclaim by the World Health

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00:15:06,250 --> 00:15:08,259
Organization report that tracked down

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00:15:08,259 --> 00:15:10,690
the detailed causes of death during that

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00:15:10,690 --> 00:15:12,269
period in January and February,

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00:15:12,269 --> 00:15:15,759
determined that only 457 people out of

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00:15:15,759 --> 00:15:18,970
those 8,000 were in fact as a result of

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00:15:18,970 --> 00:15:24,669
influenza. As a direct result of this

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00:15:24,669 --> 00:15:27,250
incident the Clean Air Act was brought

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00:15:27,250 --> 00:15:31,120
into force in 1956. The primary

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00:15:31,120 --> 00:15:33,250
components of the Act included the

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00:15:33,250 --> 00:15:36,159
establishment of smoke-free areas which

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is...effectively alignment with the

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00:15:38,230 --> 00:15:40,778
intentions of the 1950 International Air

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Conference, and provided subsidies for

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00:15:43,750 --> 00:15:45,190
households that converted to cleaner

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00:15:45,190 --> 00:15:47,350
fuels for heating and cooking including

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00:15:47,350 --> 00:15:50,318
gas and electricity. The effects of the

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00:15:50,318 --> 00:15:52,360
Act weren't immediately felt for nearly

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00:15:52,360 --> 00:15:53,500
10 years,

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00:15:53,500 --> 00:15:57,659
and subsequent fogs in 1956, 1957 and

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00:15:57,659 --> 00:16:03,789
1962 claimed a further 1,500 lives. It

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00:16:03,789 --> 00:16:06,039
has been amended and extended several

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00:16:06,039 --> 00:16:07,839
times since, however it is widely

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00:16:07,839 --> 00:16:09,519
considered to be a landmark in

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00:16:09,519 --> 00:16:11,589
environmental protection legislation and

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00:16:11,589 --> 00:16:14,409
was a turning point in our modern world

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00:16:14,409 --> 00:16:18,938
in how we manage our air pollution. It

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00:16:18,938 --> 00:16:21,879
wouldn't happen again...would it? Well

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00:16:21,879 --> 00:16:24,730
China has become the world's largest

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00:16:24,730 --> 00:16:27,490
economy, built on industry and mass

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00:16:27,490 --> 00:16:30,490
production. Sounds familiar.

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00:16:30,490 --> 00:16:33,278
They are able to make a large amount of

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00:16:33,278 --> 00:16:35,649
the world's consumable products, but that

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00:16:35,649 --> 00:16:37,509
industrial drive is coming at a cost

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00:16:37,509 --> 00:16:40,539
just like it did to London 70yrs ago.

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00:16:40,539 --> 00:16:44,230
A combined World Bank and SEPA report

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00:16:44,230 --> 00:16:46,480
estimated that 760,000

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00:16:46,480 --> 00:16:49,328
people died prematurely each

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00:16:49,328 --> 00:16:52,059
year as a result of air pollution in

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00:16:52,059 --> 00:16:55,448
China. China are in much tighter control

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00:16:55,448 --> 00:16:57,429
of their media and what they report

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00:16:57,429 --> 00:16:59,528
outside the country and specific

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00:16:59,528 --> 00:17:02,980
incidents are not always reported. It

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00:17:02,980 --> 00:17:06,369
seems that we as human beings are rather

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00:17:06,369 --> 00:17:10,269
stupid. Fundamentally to survive our

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00:17:10,269 --> 00:17:15,068
bodies require food, water and air. If we

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00:17:15,068 --> 00:17:19,328
eat bad food, we get sick and can die. If

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00:17:19,328 --> 00:17:23,769
we drink bad water, we get sick and can

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00:17:23,769 --> 00:17:28,150
die. If we breathe bad air, we get sick

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00:17:28,150 --> 00:17:32,619
and can die. It's not hard to figure it

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00:17:32,619 --> 00:17:36,429
out, and yet time and again, we rely on

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00:17:36,429 --> 00:17:39,190
prevailing winds to bring fresh air to

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00:17:39,190 --> 00:17:42,609
blow away our own air pollution, and when

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00:17:42,609 --> 00:17:44,648
the wind doesn't blow and we don't

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00:17:44,648 --> 00:17:48,509
control our own air pollution...we die.

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00:17:48,509 --> 00:17:51,990
It's pretty simple. So why do we keep

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00:17:51,990 --> 00:17:55,470
screwing this up? If you're enjoying

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Causality and want to support the show

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and Chris Stone. They and many others are

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Patrons of the show via Patreon and you

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Patrons can have a

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named thank you on the website, spoken at

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the end of the episodes, access to pages

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of raw show notes for every episode as

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well as an ad-free special release of

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that, so there's something for everyone,

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something, anything at all, it's all very

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The Engineered Network and you can find

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follow me on Mastodon @chidgey@

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00:18:41,839 --> 00:18:46,740
This was Causality. I'm John Chidgey. Thanks

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00:18:46,740 --> 00:18:49,160
for listening.

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[Music]

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