Pragmatic 26: Gambling Machines

24 June, 2014

CURRENT

Gambling is all about the odds of separating you from your money and todays gambling machines are making lots of it for the government. Ben Alexander returns to discuss the Pokies.

Transcript available
Welcome to pragmatic pragmatic as a weekly discussion show conveying the practical application of technology exploring real-world trade-offs with great ideas are transformed into products and services can change outlines nothing is as simple as it seems this episode is sponsored by life's visit life ex.co/pragmatic for more information to take advantage of a special discount of their amazing LEDs exclusively pragmatic list on your host John Geagea and joining me once again today is Ben Alexander cool arm I would like today to talk about gambling gambling arm I'm not much of a gamble but at the same time I'm actually up leg over my lifetime of need more money gambling and have lost so nice and I was at Micmac millionaire make sure statistical arm outlier but that still but only because I haven't played that is still a good position to be in man used slightly like you it I'll take it right why not arm so glad you said that they because one of the problems with this this topic is that arm some people get very polarised about and the reason was all about is because I guess I'm a bit polarised about this but arm because it is what is dive into it and maybe will make sense by the Flores Lake make morally borrower I think it morally pot yes smaller and our people get people get really you because some people are just like really religiously like a religious again against I gambling is evil while and literally religiously old Gaelic very literally and otherwise other people you know have no issue with it and of course then you got the people that are have problems with gambling gambling addiction and of course that's I guess it's a whole spectrum but anyway signing is an interesting topic and were talking about especially considering that arm one I wanted my jobs that I've had in my life to date has been as a statistician of me was reliability statistics were still statistics and I never say never ceases to make me giggle a little bit on the inside considering that I nearly failed statistics when I was university and my first job arm when I was working out was over and cannot actually Nortel was doing statistics psychotic than amusing another side note another subject and only just passed was control systems and guess what I am doing and what I'm still doing yes okay refer to tell you something other doesn't it on that day I will whittle out on episode 10 about your academic proofing, Rosa was approved here anyway but sit we cannot dredge up that wasted time and I was other classes again even I haven't used a whole bunch of those ones that I got a year so they go and write whatever I'm on the arm I'm risking more feedback about Mount Sinai and Johnny account okay right so I get to start as I always do talking about what hell gambling is while not getting the topic is exactly define it so let's start by defining gambling is so gambling is the wagering of money or something of material value often referred to as the stakes and underline their quotes are on so the stakes and the stakes in are not ones you eat on an event with an uncertain outcome with the primary intention of winning additional money and all material goods so long-winded that that's the definition so in order gambling to be considered gambling it therefore requires three elements consideration chance and a price at the end of some kind and description want the other a little asides before I go any further though are that I will mention is my one things my grandmother said are my grandmother did not believe in insurance she said that insurance is a form of gambling and she also did not believe in gambling arm the difference I guess and ensuring that as a form gambling yes, is it weird is that if you think about it has a lot of things in common with gamma because you're paying money to someone else as protection against an event that might happen but if it doesn't happen you'll never see that money back so it's composite bravado are risk averse as humans so we we from that it's fear right so I'm afraid I'm loose something that I value lies be slightly logical about that which is why insurance companies are abrupt, that's right and exactly so you and he is the funny thing I'm not against insurance I think that insurance is about mix answers to which we slightly overpay when we do that is true that economic behaviour will always always make that error now that the parasite notes fight the absolute right amount I make it if it's a mistake I make the same mistake in my grandmother she knew I was paying insurance might be upset with me irrespective I still think has a place but it doesn't really fit every characteristic of gambling because first of all it's you guarding against potential loss rather than a potential gain and there is no bars array rate is reverse but the idea is that your your calming yourself down from sitting there in a languor about an eight thinking about what happens if I what exactly me if I go if I pass away like regular legs make out what exactly are finding exactly if I'm unable to perform my my job of my primary training whatever the hell the definition is insurance terminology something like that your primary who cares whatever insurance speak but yet when I open a bill for insurance I get warm fuzzies cup again do not pay this that's what it is so not not gambling both wander through the net because my my grammar was dead set against insurance are so that your gambling notice used it against Gallagher's nuttiness tutors wanted a rational or yeah something on its okay anyway okay so types of gambling now this is not gonna cover everything I know it's not busy in a cupboard I think the big hitters of ballistics I was gonna run through the list races so horse races the trots cars chuck wagon's designers in Calgary they had chuck wagon races the chuck wagon you at the stampede Gallagher's levy anyway size of the chuck wagon is like that's freaky but anyway is also cool look really dangerous actually but really that's under yeah only the sings of going really fast and I even if you fall off that Yukon gone anyway arm any kind of competition in any kind of sport you could think of you football or soccer rate because they're two different things that support people to stop the podcast and email me the go weak or soccer Heck I'm sorry guys I track on this is the second is not psychotic or soccer yes we always call the star of my buddy friend was timely arm there is a is a good estimate of ways Gonzaga and Emma Campana now but is listed as a doer the name of our some clubs unimpeachable MLU boats now Gonzaga is raising that demonstrate its soccer anyway good arm so getting back on track any other Constable even billiards right or even cricket yes some but on cricket and about on anything you even chest specificity of a problem yeah well through so that got card games against their that's the next obvious, Subcategories of blackjack Bacharach arm poker bridge those of the things that are measuring is interesting all makers account yeah is seeking card counting is not permitted it's a good idea arm now if you're a man you can really clean up our dice based games so things like arm backgammon are craps of roulette kinda sorta is not really a dice but as a spinning wheel with numbers so kind and of course everyone's favourite I say everyone's favourite because it actually is everyone's favourite is a slot machine all poker machines in whatever rate so this nonexhaustive list but that's you this quite a lot of in their so lots and lots and lots of things I am not a talk about all of them I'm in focusing on one specifically and I'll give you my reasons a minute but arm I did want talk really quickly about arm craps not just because the names funny arm that's a teenage boy me so arm is a quick side note about craps that has had the status arm it's always fascinated me as again because I keep thinking what if they wait the dice right is such a simple idea and you over dodgy casinos are done that so few but be taken off the of the equation and equation if you assume that the advice are perfectly weighted or correctly balanced whatever the terminologies you not loaded then the idea is that probabilistic Lee speaking if you set the dice in your hands in the same position and you throw them in the same orientation and manner repeatedly then statistically you should get over an and an hour actually Koran statistically significant number of roles of the dice you should get predominantly the same numbers you should be under control that if you had a white yellow like this the strain of fighting they think about it and translate best marked shop rates are not as big bile rate relatively had him arm relatively large target regarding hazard working people just had this with consistency rate like what what what's what's up with the human body that that we introduced this much error on what's going on ask the crappy control system called the brain or something need to put a plc and NR rate in Snowdonia arm sticking although nine I don't mean that your eyes look the other expirations -itis I suck at basketball arm and I'm not even a bigger gaze that are really good still have a horrible that's that's wonderful people preferred basketball right because I can slam dunk and you can slam dunk is like you I want to find the Mrs slam dunk my hands right next to the whole year and an economist at so it's like it takes all that here you have a three-point shot in your way back from there and and like you say the variability why is it so hard to it Amy is interesting because if you are in something like baseball how how consistently it got better as orbit bulk not a very small bowler in order that the strakes on and it very high rate of speed much vascular vascular shell which is abruptly as part of rates by more stability in flight and possibly complaint about baseball outside outside raters were more care absolute your wind wind changes direction all the time it swirls around a lot no stadiums you never know where it's coming from and it weighs basketball you're in a fully enclosed arm gymnasium or stay as famously rising close rate interesting book okay of interest that's that's that's an interesting side topic but okay but just as quickly about the dice and see that's the idea if you would typically repeatedly able to roll the same number that would give you a statistical advantage you could you could stack the odds in your favour is of course casinos well in casinos they have thought about that of course and you can't wait the dice which can do is you can insist that the dice must hit the back wall of the craps arm rate thing was a call I'd never found the right name for it the craps board I guess but you know someone padded walls now the far into the back wall that's coated typically with diamonds that are familiar with sharp edges specifically to ensure that you get more random variability from each impact because statistically you are unlikely to have exactly the same spot every single time therefore that will more randomised where the dice will land in each dice the trunking little flux out of the diary as it so the port for dice must get worn out that I was I was reading up on this and Mike that's interesting so the go is also through that one in their and our battle at Africa for a random number generator well which it has already read a number generator projects that I gave random number in our air random okay right so I however have digressed to too long and I now want to focus on one thing in particular and that is the slot machine is a specific reason why you focus on slot machines and become clear shortly so I'm assuming is a slot machine is new the old-style ones you stick 1/4 in all your whatever denomination I suppose and you pull a lever and a bunch of little rollers in front of you tumble away and go click click click click in the position and affordable symbols line up then you know the right symbols line up and you'll get arbitrator bottle drop out and a whole bunch of money will come out based the size of you what you want because these days it's gone mostly while there is a place that got those apparently some told I haven't seen one in real life before to be honest I've ever seen the digital wants the first one was developed by our company called dumb statement and pit and it was so they were from Brooklyn and obviously United States that was the first of a gambling machine and it's all evolved to become a slot machine that was in 1891 seven around a while there was only it was that through four years later Charles Fay was the guy that was sort of more considered the true developer of because he had an automatic mechanism which I looked in the mechanism on what I can explain it but it is made easy is a lot that the machine is not easy to use but of the first video slot machine you know if you can call a slot machine out video base that was developed in 1976 was the error was born and that was under the direction of Fortune coin company from I want to guess what city they were from the referral and take Imagineering you see you knew about that you never got and I was top on so the AI site okay America coming Cutting edge of electronic development and Las Vegas and now So the four of the valley now I I guess it isn't really ion and how many hours drive to be pro about seven or eight hours drive maybe from the valley I guess arm in samurai I eyed I went to Vegas when I was from Mike I drove from San Diego to Vegas so are now done about Frisco Vegas Gozo Frisco makes it sounds like I've been there and I am a crystal typically in court Frisco in Fresno idling there like it when you that's just undertaking everyone at lessons in San Francisco and dispersing them off right now catheter cut that out at an alarming local stop saying I'm not cutting about okay alright so are only talk a lot about the situation in Australia because it is dear to my heart but you also will talk more about the US as well and there is also mortal bowed in the UK but God drawn something so unfixable in my backyard but for people that are not based in Australia this is still I think very interesting to see what's happened here and it's kind of scares me a bit so I write in Australia we formally refer to them as gaming machines poker machines but the average person the street calls and pokies which if you have them call pokies differences i.e. artist gone you and the star had a planner pokies I can imagine that that might sound strange someone has no idea what the hell that needs suck the pokies would usually sit there and get poked by something or somebody other Australia now Wyoming was walk around picking people with sticks assist you like the boozer sent from The Simpsons right we have the boot thing to watch our first koala signature anyway our drop bears a call and see how it was legalised in 1956 and that was New South Wales so while after this is this a slot machines rate was well after you know a lot of other parts of the world so and I was only New South Wales but within a few years the real estate followed except Western Australia and this is where things get interesting there was a royal commission held in 1974 in Western Australia into gaming machines and a Maria quote from this and this is from a royal commission that was held by the government so reads like this poker machine playing is a mindless repetitive and insidious form of gambling which has many undesirable features it requires no thought no skill and no social contact the odds are never about winning watching people playing the machines over long periods of time the impressionistic evidence at least is they are addictive to many people historically poker machines have been banned from Western Australia and we consider that in the public interest they should stay banned pretty strong words they didn't like I guess that's the brief takeaway mindless repetitive year mindless repetitive identity is insidious none of the Nightingale billionaire then didn't warm up to however as is often the case when enough money is put on the table in 1985 there were a consortium decided to our pitch to the government the idea of building a casino of course no big deal but this is gonna have poker machines and they need an exemption to be written into the law in order to get them to have them so what I had was they had a landfill that happened to be on islands in the middle of the Swan River which is the river goes through Perth which is the capital of western Australia and in 1985 the Burswood Island Casino opened which at the time it was the third largest casino in the world is not in more but it was at the time so we put enough money on the table and you offer to build things like an 18-hole golf course and rehabilitate their sending a hours scratch the right backs they bend the law the bend they do change than rewrite that section of the law so that they could have poker machines in their nice and was a nice amine great anyway asked that remains the only place in Western Australia whether it be a fine poker machines however in the rest of Australia there everywhere somewhat earlier there everywhere so if I go into and an RSL which is they are returned services league arm and this reliability and an RSL is an obit anyway arm the point is it some is it's kinda like a tavern/pub but it specifically tailored for arm the veterans and is our CFW so VFW in the US are like a ferritin for a VFW monthly environment way is not a bar exactly private houses yeah it's like this it's think of arm the club yeah it's a pity it's a club that you go to it's good to us of a dining area and it has a bar that you can you buy drinks from but it also has arm a gaming lounge and not just RSL's taverns as well see you go to a tavern you can have a go account of local account meals and you get the served over-the-counter book account so I'd like to know chips and radial whatever mistake and I'll give it serious cheap yellow quality is questionable but is food and that is most analogous to a pub and is they will also have a gaming lounge and is it is to be crazy to me Sammy places have the and in Brisbane a city I live in our within an hours drive there are three casinos while big ones Caesar Treasury casino there is dubious casino and there's arm one coast and the bottom line is that you just you everywhere you I look you know there are poker machines with Gallup moral hound the other is it started opening casinos up over the place but in my novel not over the place renders a few big ones that we have these will be of the Internet café is the rate and the sides it is everywhere but is still kind of shameful it is always out of hidden behind things is not of the open it's it's a very puritanical and so will the things in America different states have very different rules be no different to hear me like a set Western Australia that arm my from state to state Solomon place yet spreading and it's getting worse and the same thing is happening here that's before going for a further 21 could be to sponsor this episode and our sponsor is life X and life X if you're not sure they are they make a smart lightbulb and gives you previously unheard of control of your lighting each bulb is Wi-Fi enabled and can give you light whatever colour rainbow you like it is also an energy efficient LED light bulb arm when compared to incandescent and another in halogens especially and you can control a smart phone you got over a thousand lumens at your disposal it's incredibly bright but consumes only 18 W of power at maximum the most rooms on his behalf controlling the brightness colour and has a range of cool effect is really easy on your smart phone with the life X at and a smart bulb is made to last is ready for 27 years assuming four hours per day and that's the equivalent of 40,000 hours if robbing a move house before you need to change the lightbulb 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return rate means how often the far product comes back to you but this it's kinda weirdly analogous actually think about I'm southern money and how much is returning back to me right now arm so that's a nice the idea right is the return rate as a percentage of how much money you get back from how much you put in statistically over a long period of time for machine so anyone machine and these things are now done all in software so radio it it is no longer tumblers is no pulling the believer a certain way or whatever the heck people used to think they could do to change the odds know these things have fixed odds they are calculated very coldly and precisely by code by someone software and they have a fixed preset return rate and that return rate in Australia anyway is based on individual state laws and it varies between 85 and 90% EIC I think that sounds reasonably good but the problem is if you're putting thousands of dollars through these machines you're losing hundreds of dollars guaranteed pretty much every time the current estimates and this is where it gets scary is that you consider that return rate now start talk about the numbers of the quantities of these machines there are out there current estimate is that there are about five times the number of poker machines per head of population Australia there are United States five times as per head of population of course in terms of raw quantity Australia is the seventh in the world the total quantity of poker machines in our population is 23.5 million that's really not huge minutes now it's not statistically insignificant is a decent number of people expect a lot more New Zealand but really is not a lot and are happy the seventh largest in the world as incredible to me scary because one of the reasons that they proliferated so much apart from the fact that the law is been quite open about it and of course the reason the law is open about is because the government has the handout because they tax it so all these poker machines are being taxed now just to show the progression I thought it might be instructive to look at your figure from about 12 years ago so in the financial year 0203 into 2000 to 2003 arc as we split our financial years arm from midyear for reasons I don't actually understand but anyway whatever they turned in $4 billion in revenue in our 2000 to 2003 22 year now go to our 2010 2011 that numbers up to AU$11.2 billion in tax revenue to the government now in recent years due to the tail end of the GSC and so on that number has reduced but it is still above $10 billion a year so obviously the government aren't really all that concerned with tightening thumbscrews on poker machines because it's a huge revenue earner for the which you know is scary now what's even more scary is if you look at the revenue that the government gets out of taxation from all forms of gambling so this is now everything that I mentioned earlier and more which is like horseracing you any form of anything in a casino at all that that is gambling I guess unless a taxi walking to the bar which the property would have the good but the point is that revenue the government takes from poker machines alone accounts for 60% of their overall tax revenue from gambling which obviously therefore makes them the biggest single income earner from all forms of gambling are 60% of the total comes from them online so they're not exactly emulate keen to regulate them out of existence so now just quickly will talk a little bit about are the US and in the US there are a lot of states that have banned them most famously however Nevada and star Atlantic City specifically have much more relaxed restrictions and therefore are considered sort of the two gambling I guess makers if you will rent arm in states and a lot of look at Atlantic City as the poor cousin of Las Vegas are you so the guy I believe that perception and maybe can correct me you that some is that Atlantic are sort of the poor so you go to Atlantic City if arm you delegated all the trouble of going to Las Vegas and it is not as glitzy bit bigger still gamblers money at RAD sorting my impression is that Sarah Mars is on its results on these cost review yes much more convenient yet exactly our flight of also has a positive vibe you guess what you want that this lots of neon you want that that run down his government earned the desire counters his curse now remit the air the lakes they are beautiful I will say that still burning was that men are running the number no are you on about like that I know how to recover the river court client not late took place actually the monolayer of the act recover linen and 60s so polluted that job matching flareup God's terrible okay slight as it used to be well okay well okay good I'm glad slice and used to be and there is and what what we what we talk about poisoned rivers arm the upside to the deindustrialisation cultural now making a swimming year but Yabsley surely was the pH arm the EIA there is a river in arm Tasmania are think it's the Gordon River I think are appropriate that wrong but anyway are there was a place called Queenstown and Queensland had a massive Berkeley was copper mine I was a gold mine was when the other and the tailings from the mine it while the processing they are either used arsenic I think it was and is asking a course as well as friendly compounds that you raise kind of poison are still living organisms so the tailings were useless as dumped in the river why not right and is are essentially mining stop there something ridiculous like 40 years ago or more well the whole river is a very disturbing shade of brown and the mind and the clay soils in the in in the riverbed have got so much arsenic in them there saying that is gonna take is another 150 years before it'll actually be cleaned enough and rinsed out enough deluded enough to make it safe actually swim at and the like to return to a horrible I mean Tasmania is a beautiful place and then you come across this and you look at I'm looking at that river and on like that is so unnatural that it is not I don't consider myself a tree hugging okay but it's heartbreaking watching that look at that anyway also got to do with gambling nothing decisively get Microsoft but still there scary looking rivers that were matches okay so the counterargument that I've heard from a lot of people that enjoy playing poker machines is that machines are about winning apparently there about entertainment so the argument that I've heard is if I spent an hour to gambling away $50 and let's assume you can make $50 last an hour to write assuming you can I could properly spend the same amount of money in a movie theatre on a ticket and some popcorn and a drink probably over some kind time period you know that I commence flimsy or not but you know will assist assume you could make 50 bucks last that long and let's assume that it's an expensive cinema complex but then again note here at cost 17 bucks to CR new release movie and a lot of theories about what was like over there we were the scene movies and Bob McNair in his replicas you his rip-off and that no most movies we get no are from America Road of those bits of M&M as expensive as better heavy all year so, in a boat sometimes takes three months to go is a big lake into the container ships rate linkage is one of marketers and men amid the Lego movie and I it though they took a long way around and they will ever use the canals it took three months to get here are anyway they built the ruling in iTunes couplets and chippings and removing items in a Armageddon on at least another to know we go our own there are no wonder there okay yes, I'm Simon I'm always a little that that is an anger that is always simmering in the back of my brain and you've successfully brought out no-show on, show about arm of Serbs dreaming versus restriction dreaming versus downloaded I did that with Josh centres in Rye but that was not really specifically about their age diffusion and how this just so messed up and how this makes Mr Berry's daddy and I should stay away from the region code God you know what I got so much pent-up rage and deftly talk about that at some point so it's back to talk about the pent-up rage getting you could have dragged on is out of a shift I get back on topic so the people argue that poker machines are a form of entertainment and ER are not saying that they're not sure they are that's fine but the thing is though going back to the movie analogy and okay fine of expensive movies and really really expensive popcorn apparently arm anyhow the stimulation provided by poker machine and the risk reward reinforcement exists in a poker machine but doesn't exist in a movie it is doesn't mean if it was a good movie I guess that encouraging a vacancy more movies and I don't think so I think that the environment and the enjoyment of going to see a movie irrespective what is good or bad or takes you back which you get positive reinforcement is sitting in the seat and a season give you some kind back massage and saying thank you for coming to the movie theatre sailor that the risks Russell Bennett's creepy image anyway is not likely to become an addictive behaviour rescue was that you can have that instant feedback may not have the dopamine squirts despondent yet exactly right you get an asset so because the analogies are getting creepy ultimately that right there however the law of averages and a lot of saying the law of averages because as a nothing statement statistically as the law of averages anyone of mind the law of averages Al Qaeda said again statistically you can never win if you gamble enough over a longer period of time I guarantee you will come out behind you will you must statistically you have to so if you spent a dollar a day over any significant period of time in a month you walk away have less money if you actually would account that is a guarantee for the vase for the vast majority of people there will be outliers such as yourself for example where you are ahead congratulations well which is never gambling and athletes are going great there is a window so don't yesterday gambling it might ever get get get lucky earlier stay ahead right that it's there I do need one more thinks they had the gamblers analysing the doesn't actually work so this is that this you are lucky a that's right and this is the beauty of okay they call this the gambler's fallacy I first read this years ago I thought yes the sums are perfectly where a success in a single event is the belief okay were a success in a single event affects the outcome of future events either positively or negatively hence after a win there is an expectation that there will either be more wins or less wins as a direct result solve I've got a whole bunch of you know you one year one year one there are people that believe that they can continue to winning streak a hot streak street right is completely false and that hence the name gambler's fallacy and the best way to illustrate it is to do a little bit of statistics a statistics mind if you've survived this long through the episode that may be delighted to think and you're expecting as a double-digit disabled by statistics per azalea may be likened that they know I'm Namath yet but about to break that right now so bracing yourself there are things in it at night. Tossing a coin a lot tossing a coin because it's such a great example Sarah got coin while I'm assuming everyone is used quite a 50-50 chance of being heads and as yet another joke because not every coin has a head on but let's just assume for a moment that Whittle met two sides one side is unlikely in underside that is statistically possible so let's assume doesn't have another movies in where you you write a letter into them and you see that they do something about that are against the probability of tossing heads or tails 50-50 chance as a perfect coin otherwise in in the business cycle a fair coin and I was not weighted you toss 100×50 times it'll be on heads 50 times will be on tales zero times will be on edge thank very much the probability of tossing ahead therefore if you do it once is one half all expressed in different terms wanting to say a 50-50 chance I wanted to chance a chap probably of one half all means the same thing now financially tossing a coin to a row is hence one quarter because if you animal up this for possible outcomes you get to heads you get to tales you get one had and one tail or you could get one tail and one hat if you're counting the sequence so to get to heads you got one chance in four so you have probably of one quarter So let's do something insane let's try and get 20 in a row the number of probabilistic leases statistically is you have a one in 1,048,576 chance of getting 20 heads in a row and after the 20th heads in a row you think man I am so likely to get the 21st Hanoi I know the probably the next toss being a head or tail considered in isolation is still only wanting to nothing changed hopefully that's clear that if you're not getting a little ignition is feel free to read up on it but essentially gambler's fallacy is distortion of reality it's not EMO there is no such thing as a hot streak a winning streak there is no such thing sorry when it comes to statistics the distance isn't so hard poker machines make sounds and they rotate Academy but you know it actually make money I went to that the casino McClymont and those those sounds and I will put me into a trance that's right it's really it is bizarre and adult in our Lord to freeze different words given users is you can armistice feel this this electrical energy of all these people is desperate sad people and putting all this it is the non-mental energy into hoping that these machines make the right sequence of numbers, but try and give and I could feel it you look at our you can NAR it is a fear it I get exactly the same kind of feeling it's hard to get the right word for its it's it's it's like a strange level of energy it's great EEA fallacy felt like you are becoming some sort of psychic experience of these machines are kind of desirable it's almost 9° when you're moving through the that the poker machines is like this some are no costs sounds so non-WorkCover it is it feels like you're you're almost arm a little bit fuzzy as I get says you could start. Then Marilyn in the other Dragon outliers leave and that's the point is that these sounds are sounds of winning about in particular they have been carefully engineered to be very pleasing sounds great and and they make no mistake they have spent millions and millions of dollars refining those stupid sounds and a new and I will say this this is something about a car, finger on it was someone put their finger on it and they parade and aim they put in that machine okay people smarter than us figured this out and the sounds of a winning bet are drawn out of a long period of time relative to the period it takes to have a standard bets I push the button I bet one line time but one line and it comes up and goes glibly did went great hit the button again the whole time period is maybe a few seconds but if you win so so you're betting a dollar on every line your 50 bucks so you bet five lines you've spent five dollars so the five dollars are gone now but then in the sixth spin I went four dollars back great that's fantastic I've one and that gets drawn out over like 2030 seconds and is playing stupid music and you got little coins little images of coins coming in fountain in front of you is like pretty and a psyche looking at this and it's like that's the positive reinforcement you've one you've one that if you're in an arena casino there's hundreds of these things around here or go so you're your hearing be the winning sounds way more often than losing sounds but you because you sit there and listen to other people winning and you like K me soon rate that the general although told of the places it is immediate amid record great that's it I'm happy now and is it so that that the whole thing is so that the joke joke the reality is that you've only one back four dollars but you currently cost you five dollars to get that four dollars but you know you feel like you've one CT playing arm in ionospheric Street make a claim so the funny thing about the sounds is that I found there's a whole bunch statement on as none of this is news none of this is new this is been a well studied well-known well understood phenomenon what gets me is the number of people that don't understand how they're being manipulated how that how how these machines in the Wedderburn program the way to set up the statistics of it they don't understand that all the studies have already shown things like for example if you turn the sound off on these machines you are likely to spend less money now they've been studies would have done this they've done testing with different groups of people in different age demographics in different countries around the world now linked to just one of them which is a Canadian study and is I don't want anyone to suggest that therefore makes it less relevant because of intimate Australia and Canada is big in Australia point is that that was a really good study because that was specifically tested sound on sound off with a large group of people and I thought was very interesting to have a read is also a AM is also a White Paper White Paper sorry it was a research arm paper done on it are and it was is very very good reading so I strongly encourage you to read those on the links and shown at so yes the sounds affect you the way that they structure the game entices you to spend more none of that should be a surprise ultimately you walk away with at best maybe 90% of what you went in with an acid best that's always machines in a payout the trick so I'm told is to walk away when you're ahead okay was to stop me going back so I go back and I spend my money on no longer ahead if you it considered over a longer time period and is the thing is that people think about in small slots of time and speaking of time there was a flower parties was 1015 years I couldn't get a nail down the exact date but in Australia up until I not that long ago Adecco some of that time wasn't shown on screen plasma time-of-day settlement wouldn't wasn't shown on the screen and I brought a law that mandated that he had show the time guess where the time is it's tucked away in a corner and it's in the smallest God then find they could possibly pick but it's there you are quite magnifying glass small but it's like yet I'm looking at a time and it is valuable they are guarding a lot of rate like the city and its it's it's insidious exactly just like that `from actor from the main come mindless and mindlessly little valid and insidious yet exactly it is it says it all sums up so PAs coming up with a domain while they are the people that have come up with this the found the perfect way of separating your money from your your pocket are it's incredible you know it's even more efficient than Apple so far sorry I just defend what I like in the story therein Libby discount here of the more unities as you walk into an Apple store any you lucky to get served but anyway our main site at getting sidetracked myself again but the whole time things is one example me and a lot of people know the tricks okay to casinos got and of course that is don't usually have clocks around the place all the windows are all darkened and the lighting is low so that it looks like the same time of the day or night 24 hours a day so you lose track of time Helen given there are no hour 20 minutes not effective in their three hours and no you can't notice time passing because we go we human beings we take you from the sun right so take this on our equation your live in a box carefully can crafted comfortable box where you can give your money the casino and anything casinos are so successful what you think people want to keep building casinos what you think the government wants people to have access to poker machines why because it's a way for them to raise money lots of money it's not about winning it never is and you never can statistically so if after listening all this way and you still love gambling that's great but I would strongly recommend playing either blackjack or craps because I got all the details why again plenty of articles and is a feeling in the shadows they are statistically the two casino games that will give you the best possible odds however ultimately over a long period of time it is never possible to win more money than you have put in it just isn't and if you want to go and say to me you John there's this guy in Nantucket who happen to win $1 million that's great okay I'm happy for but let's just be honest there are maybe only a few dozen people in the world who can actually say that and I've known people that have had severe gambling problems and although I'd they didn't lose their house are iron out I am going to a friend of a friend here but a friend of a friend did lose their house from a gambling addiction people you see in the paper in the public service I've seen those are just a few weeks ago here locally arm you are a woman who is in charge of our summer the invoicing and some government departments are lost a job and owed some insane amount of money hundreds and hundreds and thousands of dollars that she'd are misappropriated and it all went into gambling and I stop and think every time I see those sorts of figures like $10 billion in tax revenue how many happy lives have actually been ruined to make that money how cold how ruthless is that the bottom line though is it's kinda like model alcohol it's kind of like arm fast food it's choice is I can't stop you from doing and it's in freedom by its basic definition means that you can shouldn't restrict people from doing the things that they would choose to do some not suggesting that I would live in a society where everything is regulated and the thumbscrews are down and as you start on every corner and you can't gamble you can't drink you can't eat fatty foods whatever that's not what I want what I want is for people to appreciate and understand the numbers understand the probability the statistics the mathematics behind it understand the way that casinos and poker machines in particular manipulate you if you understand it I guarantee you you like it anymore or if you are you not unlike anywhere near as much and as I think the best defence against losing money to this study machines so honestly yeah I guess this is been a soapbox the episode has an on I think people enjoying a limit on how Brum would have known no issue with any of this I don't have an issue with people are from you about what bothers me about is that it is the government involvement rate you that that is this not an organisation that is ostensibly about protecting and serving everybody is going to take money from one group of people and disbanded on behalf of another when you know that the group would be bleeding from her acting rationally rate absolutely were jamming frontier legacy not the libraries, the big now the big thing I let my Sabrina supposedly goes to the schools and of course not some other schools always end up still being broke arm yet will that's a lot of whatever money they make from the library distance coming out with the not just the free lunches offer the taxes and rate my gadgets it's now known as the depressing party as though the problem with people do have a real problem with gamble anyways radio you'll have to make it you don't have to did something to puzzlingly changes in government gets involved yet absolutely and I guess that's that is my my biggest issue is the fact that ultimately was expression however has the gold makes the rules and honestly the government has a huge amount of money and they can get more money by supporting our gambling generally speaking so whenever I come across a state like Western Australia where they banned I have hope for the future and then they build a dam casino and unlike my faith in humanity just got squashed again but then I older I got my foot myself look you know it's choice is not right for me to say you can't do something all I can do is try and educate people and say you know what he is a list of really sensible logical rational there I say arm pragmatic reasons why you should spend my summer's other than greater poker machine and arm no if one person comes away from this that that you serve me up lady sings and then realises that after listening this in our some of them again that has been with the discussion that's why I want approach anyway if you still enjoy our gambling go-ahead minutes not problem it's your choice and that's the great thing about freedom is that you have a choice to do what you want when you want a want so one so go for it but just remember what's what you're doing and remember that the start the numbers the odds are always can be against you that a lot of say about this so you're my leave it there if you want talk more about this are you can reach me on Twitter and John Geagea and check out my writing attic distortion.com if you likes any feedback please use the feedback form on the website and that's we also find show notes for this episode under pod casts pragmatic I personally thank our life acts for sponsoring pragmatic if you're looking for a great LED bulb that is energy-efficient remotely controllable colourful and just plain fun to use than remember to specifically visit this URL LIF X.co/pragmatic and use the coupon code pragmatic for 50% off the total price of your order I also like to thank my guest host Ben Alexander for being on the show once again and is that it was an IM I'm in a quandary because I realise that you're taking a break from Twitter as I normally ask how was this letter got in touch with you you can you can't snow arm was only the nominee now with no this makes for a rather different ending to the show on the say if you in touch with Ben in touch with me and I'll pass it on that work why would you want, then people of the supply goes wrong with that thank you everyone for listening and thanks again thank you�
Duration 57 minutes and 8 seconds Direct Download

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People

Ben Alexander

Ben Alexander

Ben created and runs Constellation.fm and Fiat Lux

John Chidgey

John Chidgey

John is an Electrical, Instrumentation and Control Systems Engineer, programmer, podcaster and runs TechDistortion and the Engineered Network. John has produced and appeared on many podcasts as well as Pragmatic.

What Happened to Mastodon? You can reach me on the Fediverse as explained here, just search for me on your instance of Mastodon, Misskey or Pleroma and you’ll be able to follow/remote follow me wherever you are!