Pragmatic 31: It's Supposed To Be Raining

30 July, 2014

CURRENT

Since information could travel faster than the weather we’ve strived to predict the weather more accurately into the future. Joel Housman joins John to dig deep into just how hard weather prediction can be and why.

Transcript available
Welcome to pragmatic pragmatic as a weekly discussion show concertina practical application technology exploring the rule trade-offs with our great ideas are transformed into products and services that can change our lives nothing of the simplest scenes this episode is sponsored by many tricks makers of helpful apps for them and visit many tricks all one word.com/pragmatic for more information about the absent butler chemo Leach Moon Usher desktop curtain time sink name angler and which if you visit the URL you can use the code pragmatic 25 shopping can't save 25% on any matrix product zips is also sponsored by life thanks visit life expelled LIF X.co/pragmatic for more information and to take advantage of a special discount off their amazing LED Smart bulbs exclusively to pragmatic listeners will talk more about them during the show on your host John Geagea and I joined our today by my guest hosts are Joel Housman and Elijah hi John doing well how are you I'm doing very very well thank you very much thanks forever coming on the show you surer thanks for having me this is a real treat yet some air it sits when we got in touch and send you through through the topic less do you you pick a topic arm that I was a bit concerned if I'd be out of find someone who is so who is keen to cover it but I'm really glad that you did before we dive into that are just a little quickly what I say arm a few thank use after our lasts episodes arm deserts had an overwhelming response to episode 30 are about coffee are I was concerned about covering coffee but I've had many dozens of tweets back particularly of Chris great feedback arm so clearly a lot of people enjoy it so thank you everyone for the feedback really appreciated but I also specifically my thank our Dean Johnson for the lovely review on iTunes are it's been a while since I've mention iTunes reviews but just a reminder if you are enjoying the show please leave a rating on iTunes really would appreciate it arm it does help so are so thank you for that and some without further ado arm I guess we should start talking about the weather all well maybe not specifically what the weather is like right now but more about predicting the weather great so so could you just start by telling me why you chose that topic because I think it's an interesting story well arm I've always been fascinated by our weather and and and I think it dates back to when I was a child and that where I grew up in an south-western Virginia where a sort about the earlier in the base of the Appalachian Mountains arm and I really really really enjoyed snow in the winter because our because the Virginia highway department are so poorly equipped to deal with winter storms it meant that we got out of school arm so whenever I would hear our inner TV would be on the background and I would hear that although the weather forecast mentioned that there is may be snow coming I would I would be glued to our the news to hear the forecast or a wall when we we finally got cable TV arm around the early 90s mid 90s I would I would watch the other weather channel back when that station was still a good channel to watch arm and hand and what it would be glued to that channel for four days only and prior to any storm coming to determine are you know it was snowing could we get out of school arm since of the fascination work was was initially with just snowstorms in the winter and there nah I started to pay attention to things like proteins and in the summer in the folder and Hurricane season and then arm tornadoes although with tornadoes usually don't get live coverage of them on TV because usually the redundant with before anyone has a chance to do to get on the scene of words happening and they're a bit more dangerous arm but yes back to a childhood fascination arm and then I almost majored in meteorology at university until I realise how much maths was required for for me to was a decree arm you and and and NA had a brief fascination will and and and and dream of being a staunch racer in the Midwest chasing tornadoes until I realise that it's actually really really hard to get a job in a strong tracer because arm is pretty much only funded by grants at universities and and it's pretty much it's very low-paying and and you pretty you have to be like a grad student and you will do it for a few years arm until you've got your degree and moved on to an actual real child arm is also kinda dangerous if you dwell back to and and and and these days there is actually becomes a bit of a problem in the wet midwest because there are so many strong tracer and rate lease for a system that it has a lot of warning that they know many days in advance it's gonna come through an area the storm chasers of this and on that area and do and clog up the roads and impede emergency responders from getting to that to the scene arm all sorts of things that give strong tracer is a really bad name and I am actually very grateful I didn't choose that path now because I think I would have regretted it so did you think that the Shonda Bronson is on the dance floor with that the movie twister as it is that I think maybe arm twister III remember really enjoying that movie when I was younger and then I went back and watched it are about a year ago and and having seen it is as an adult arm I was how this movie really isn't as good as I remember it picking and then you can't have really cheesy namely special effects arm and you I ice I still I still have a soft spot sorter for that movie but there's so many gaping holes and as I got really yearly it's it's kind of like I went when you're when you're our technology geek and you watch any sort of arm of movie and they mention technology and they get details wrong and you just whence I imagine you are twister is like that from meteorologists I suspect your ripeness or call them thank you for the background that that's that's good to hear I've always been fascinated by weather prediction because I am for me I guess it sort of makes it started with a barometer for me I get that amount of jumping ahead here I really think we should probably dive in so arm I guess the problem with weather prediction of any kind accuracy and in long-term beyond just what you can see on the horizon that can require some, communication method that travels faster than the weather travels and the problem with that historically is that we really haven't had until recently our Zaremba the 19 site the 1830s I should say are when the telegraph became widespread enough it was actually possible to do that that's arm in any case early on they yell they relied heavily on on this synoptic synoptic charts and service level barometric pressure is on everything and actually that the word Synoptics are derived from Greek word which is our synoptic costs which are means ours seen together which is when I looked up what that meant I might go ashore again how that has to do with weather but anyway the mind but my point is that the arm serviceable barometric pressure was much easier to measuring oblong temperature and wind speed and direction everything they really eight is a very very small part of the story because once you go up a few you well really even 3040 m or whatever you gave everything changes is not just this this little thin skin at ground level that is the problem so anyway so the idea of the of the of a barometer when I was a kid fascinated me that's when I first of got interested in it was when I successfully managed to kill the barometer because I mean I want to know what was inside because you know that is just what you do when you're a kid so I caught a barometer about your screwdriver inflated screwdriver and opened it up and call little empty insight was that funny hissing noise when I opened up a little bit so you these things I view it if if you've ever seen one vote for blissful listeners everything on a psycho and think think of it like a yarn it's it's like a massacre metal can arm but it's relatively thin and is the arm pits or is it while this particular nozzle it was circular and it had a series of ridges the circular ridges that were concentric and they got smaller as she got towards the outside of the whole thing was really only about an inch if that thick so now 25 monitors that may be a bit more money 30 million summer but I wrench and it's so fully sealed to a set known pressure and as the barometric pressure changes the oppression outside changes then it pushes that actual pressure vessel in and out and that movement in and out is picked up by a spot by a spring in that spring drives that than the needle on the dial to show the barometric pressure so because if you puncture that pressure vessel will see just busted your barometer so gay this was my first foray into spearheading the moment I also got here I know I feel terrible about even now nevermind well you have to take things apart to figure how they work exactly it's just my problem is I can put it back together again so well that loudly sets a common problem yet it is it is the clock suffered a similar fate will can I say but anyway arm yes and later computers although I see grouping computers back together so it wasn't such a bad sad story on a very nice to do that with all hard drives and a hammer seriously you will now I would have are back-to-back and that the mid to late 90s went when the lodges are drives were are they pointing a 40 GB arm I a and in paragraphs it had gotten sheep by a would operate them frequently and old ones that I had no more use for oral it's a diet of something like that I am if it was out of warranty market or immediate I would I get asked in a flathead screwdriver and hammer and prise its key support call myself nice silver spinning disc inside the brain you idea must hours of fun anyway okay they get it so that they get credit for the episode there we go will move on arm so numerical modelling is pretty much our rabbits are things about the 1920s whereabouts are was all well and good but it was very well numerically computationally mathematically intensive which is coming so you alluded to just earlier with your career decisions and it really wasn't all that useful until the 1950s also where the computer started to have you initially analog computers because both and digital computers and as the power increased numerical models can actually start to be more useful and of course also in the 50s they were launching satellite so you they start to launch arm satellites to you monitor the weather so all of that collected more data always need more data in a more datable data because your models are gonna run better if you have more data and an obviously then collect all the data then it becomes an exponentially bigger problem so you need a faster and faster computer computer all this extra data that your your Dragon in an azimuth based on I knew that they could look ahead are a week or two but when I actually just brush up on this before we did the episode arm I was surprised that they're saying it's the best models are will give you 6 to 7 days of relatively accurate prediction and that's the best they can do at best they can do now and yes some lease so seriously crazy so-so and even then some of the models arm at least in the the east and the east coast of the US were where I actually felt by the speak about I don't know about how it isn't in maybe on the West Coast or another countries but arm if we have a ASA winter storm coming in arm in February and we know it's going to hit sometime between you know 8 PM on Wednesday night and you know 9 AM on Thursday morning arm your your get your get mile runs that will say as foreign elders save for 14 days that it's can happen by you rarely see lease good forecasters actually produce forecasts on on the website are on the TV show or whatever it is that the mechanism for guessing arm to say I will the business want to weeks from now because they know that the models will deviate enough that that there will look like an idiot if if they come out and say this can be a blizzard and nothing happens now that you still doesn't happen but arm are you know it is certain models at least arm have a reputation even for being accurate our 48-hour sale but as you get closer to that to the event they become less accurate and in certain other models have have a reputation for being inaccurate 48 hours out when they get in the last 12 hours they become more accurate so so are at least four of the forecasters in our area were we live they will take bits and pieces of information from different models depending on their their accuracy and a reputation for being accurate during certain part-time periods prior to the event happening on an and that the them when a model predicts something and it turns out to be accurate that's that that the terminology they used to tell butterscotch verifications of the model verifies the actual prediction arm and an the two primary models that we use here are the are the though GFS which is known as the North American model which is funded by know what's paid for by the federal government and arm the European model which are aimless mum little a hazy on how that gets funded but I think it's only from the European Union arm in different European countries arm and the European Union the European model actually has a reputation for being a bit more accurate on average than the GFS model arm by get also is less accurate at predicting certain things like a a certain type of severe storm in the winter may be more accurate under the GFS then make a certain type of winter storm are our front from the European model in a interesting call while those models i.e. arm I was hoping you talk about those because I do know as much about them so are but I don't why do I just want to quickly talk a little bit more about inputs to those models is real quickly arm so you that's that's really cool and hold those sorts one of things that I was found interesting was getting the data for these models so you got ground stations that that might be things but you also have which five figure far more interesting ERI weather balloons and is a far more interesting is interesting as a blanket possibly be that you know so these the weather balloons that they launch they lost and usually twice a day and what they'll do as I have the something on they have they basically carry a payload and that and that payload has all the senses in there typically are four pressure temperature and relative humidity but I have a transponder that also allows their position to be tracked so you can use them to estimate the windspeed direction at different altitudes as well so an adult they'll transmit every 1 to 2 seconds gave the data and everything and I think the more modern ones also got drum dialogues on board and everything so that the thing is that they launched with either hydrogen and helium and I started about 6 feet in diameter which is about 1.8 m it is quite a reasonable Serbia Avenue average while decent sort of height and our size but as they go up in the upper atmosphere and is less air pressure of course the other blue swells because the vehicles in IT which can be written as P1 the one over T1 it was PTT to have it to $0.32 if you even if you decrease the external manner pressure than the vine will increase proportionally so by the time you get up to the upper atmosphere way up high access was up to about 20 feet in diameter which is huge is that at six about 6 m in diameter at which point than the actual balloon material will pop and then the payload are will drop down like like a rock pretty much and it has a young balloon are not alone has parachute a mechanism which is triggered by pressure summaries a certain altitude are a Pops parachute and it need glides back down and then the they recover it and then they are refit ready for the next release so they were saying that I am I was found connecting the way they did that II when I was younger I think it uses that these balloons I think that's really wasteful because it is while these balloons right when it is right away and the arts and and they'll feed that data into those models that you are talking about and that that's key information because you need that information from higher up because you don't know the higher level air masses are doing as you enter into other sources of data are especially when you're dealing with say cyclones or typhoons or against depending on what you call them relive our ability data are off the coast a lot of countries arm and even some of them way out in the middle of the Atlantic to the Pacific arm they'll are in of course a credibility of the ocean floor and the all weather station on the bully and then it lease for our I'm not sure how it's done with cyclones and in typhoons but at least transatlantic know also finds a something colder the hurricane hunters that are a thing they are usually's flown by military personnel but like operating under the obverse of of Noah arm and they they have these specially equipped planes that are filled with red orange from our radar in and all sorts of weather sensors and and and that sort of thing and they will take off the make regularly scheduled flights into the Hurricane Ahmed at various altitudes usually there is a pretty higher but they they basically will fly like I criss-cross zigzag formation arm are a zigzag flight route are diagonally across the Hurricane are from one side of the eye to the other through the middle that I arm and then Dell Dell turn into another pass you know so basically they want to hear all four sides of the eye wall and get different readings at different altitudes and in as though flying through the draft will sensors from the plane that that you know fall down through the Hurricane and measure arm the pressure in the windspeed and all that sort of thing at various heights within the storm arm and and those are really important especially for Hurricane is because in otherwise older sensors are just a ground-level you can exactly Florida weather balloon up the Hurricane and have it go straight up in the notice not in a workout is now arm but yes those are all loving especially with with the with storms coming in off the coast arm that and I think I think even some some ships like cargo ships tankers and all will have weather stations on board that also feed into the models you absolutely got all the ships out in the ocean make sense to be collecting data from IRA I would be surprised if you I'm pretty sure Arnold the goal of them by any means but some of them arm if there equipped with our modern enough weather equipment arm that is able to turn to radio it started back in and are not sure how that works whether a night to the owners of the particular models pay them for the Dadar or it's just like a volunteer at a whatnot although I think it's in the best interests of the ships to buy wanted information ships can help them to an article I suspect that would be the case that here it's more more data better models and that comes back to Iraq because them would only as good and the more data the bigger your computer has to be facet that set okay cool so before we go any further sponsor benefit sponsored is really quickly are and that's many tricks so metrics are a great software development company whose apps do well to guess that many tricks are there apps include Butler chemo Leach mu Usher desktop curtain time sink my name angler and which there is someone to talk about each app were just going to focus on a different one each week and this week we can talk about which spell W I TCH the thing about which is a supercharger for your command tab at apps which are on your Mac without which it is get whichever Windows on top for a given out and if you like me and you've got three or four documents open at once in pages or in word let's say you take another step after that to grab the specific document that you want with which you get a beautifully simple pop-up that lists every window that open across spaces displays yet be exactly the one that you're looking for is even neat quick look previous of the windows content so you can be sure it's the winter you're looking for before you select and that alone makes were grabbing but you can tweak the time delay when it before the switch I actually opens even show a high specific apps are windows that you do or you don't want included as was it customises doom close minimise behaviours for new selects are specific windows someone to play with with which this week and I can see why people write about it if you haven't tried it down by the trial have a play with which you self you download a free trial of it from many tricks or one-word.com/which WI TCH and in China for self if you do for my wallet then you can buy it from that page or you can buy through the Mac App Store for $14 US however if you visit that URL before 17 August and you can take advantage of a special discount off their very helpful apps exclusively for pragmatic business to simply use pragmatic 25 in the discount code box the shopping cart to receive 25% off this offer is only available to pragmatic lessons for a limited time to take advantage of it while you can thank you to many tricks for sponsoring pragmatic so why are things job that I find are just blows my mind about this whole weather prediction thing is when you consider all of the variables so I got to thinking okay the sun is shining well presumably great let's say you've got cloud cover that just comes over for whatever reason multitude of reasons that this cloud cover in reducing our sunlight hits the ground up in a localised area that can reduce a surface level temperature that can change your evaporation rate it can affect therefore the local air pressure and over in a localised area and this can affect the pressure gradient between low and high pressure zones around that area that will then change the windspeed around that area as a high-pressure air flows in the lower pressure zones and suddenly this whole thing is not so damn complicated site now I understand just how hard this is all from cloud cover and so so what you're alluding to is our something that is a think that many people have heard of of this phrase but it it is referred to as the slang term as the butterfly effect the arm switch which deals with chaos theory if you're if you've I think I think the movie Jurassic Park exposed more people to the concept of the chaos theory and the general public than any other pop culture everything I think you're right about that yes the whole little drop of water on the brain like when exactly when his 20s chatting up the next future Mrs Malcolm rate exactly are you that was that was that there was a wonderful thing 00 awards that an eminent actor who so good are Jeff: yeah gold in his eye was he pleased the same character and yeah I was good but you darkly chaos theory but appointment that's the one so this this was pioneered by an American mathematician named Andrew Edward Lorenz arm who was a mathematician and a meteorologist arm this was back in the 60s something 1961 arm and is not Lorenz was using a our computer might alter to run a weather prediction basically arm and that the story goes that are in and I want to be accurate when a service that that is a shortcut on a number in the sequence arm he entered the decimal R .506 by mistake instead of entering .506127 you know he left off three decimal places and the results of this prediction was a completely different weather scenario and in he he noticed he noticed that the prediction didn't really do what he thought it was going to do and then he went back and check this data and realised that he loved offering a small and we ran it again with a 3 dB a completely different scenario came out and and based on this alteration arm he wrote a our he published a theoretical study that that was what are well known in and at the time that was cold deterministic nine periodic flow arm which basically is the scientific way of saying are the the butterfly effect at the point butterfly theory arm and and he he would then present this paper adds in some sort of mass mathematical or a meteorological arm conference and in in summing up his talk on the brochure or however it was published another of his colleagues are six suggested saying that arm if the theory were correct one flap of this Eagles wings could change the course of water forever and then Lorenz Kunda borrowed this this idea of this phrase and and changed around to be more elegant and and basically said does the flap of a butterfly's wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas and thus that the concept of the butterfly effect was born near exactly as it is fascinating how that came about but that you actually write and and ends this so many interactions and so many things to model that I suppose theoretically fences the if you could monitor every single air molecule in the world and mathematically simulate all of them and have a big enough supercomputer to compute all the data that's right then it should be possible to predict with complete accuracy however that is incredibly unrealistic you only think about so it's sort of thing that may never happen or if it ever does happen is in a long long long way off so you so one of the things that idea that they do arm go with the is is a run not what were essentially is Monte Carlo simulations which I'm I'm familiar with the engineering but our something that's I believe is referred to as ensemble forecasting rate yes… This is pretty much the minor and weather forecasting ensemble yes that's it so you put multiple model predictions and you get a distribution of possible results and pick the best essentially the most statistically likely possibility doubt you, the multiples yet you make throughout if you get if you if you would say would say there is gonna be you know a storm coming across the Midwest and you run it against the European model and the GSF model and the Canadian model and the North American model and the car the British model of the UK model became at arm and and let's say I would then there is this a couple living out there is the mid-range model the SRS disorder henceforth has model let's say to those models have these ways you crazy out lawyers that don't say that they're not even close what although my other models are doing so so most modern forecasters will just cuddle throughout those two are out lawyers and then average the others together arm and then whatever the average is this what you read in the paper that it is gonna do tomorrow or are not in the paper I'm dating myself. Are you not on your favourite weather website or or we weather the rates absolutely right you can put about exactly so what the are things that you mentioned is there briefly was arm the short-term forecast and is one of things that I I found interesting to staff about the from the act in the upper point of app world because often you were a mechanistic guesses to real scenarios there's I'm I'm sitting at home about to go out or in the office and about to go out and not the weather is doing the apparently obvious look out the window arm in a you could use an app on your desktop however I already PC however the other use cases that you roundabout you not next to a computer you got your phone with your smart phone and SCO running on android Windows phone I was whatever's running and you are check with the weather's CEO Noah looks the part well I almost acknowledge the paper anymore that's not true they do but so many more people I think are turning to apps and excellent things that the last few years has been a massive explosion of different apps that are available for looking at the weather and some of them are just a window they simply report on data supplied by different meteorological yellow divisions departments, Ray and Emma goes those forecasts are put out at set intervals during the day Yann and some of the apps may only pull the data you know are based on whatever the last you know forecast was which may be six hours all 10 hours old enough yet exactly and and yet there are other apps that actually have a dedicated service when I actually do their own interpretation they do their own ensemble forecasting some of the some just look at the short-term models and that was what was I first thought of a came across was wonderful dark sky and dark sky II think I'm sure it's still popular or not but it was has is not available in Australia but I will herbal radiators are a dark sky as is I still love it I use it daily I've seen icy recommended all the time on social media I think it's still very popular absolutely I'm ready you right now think it is very popular but still not available in Australia which and I selected this and it's only currently available in the US are Puerto Rico and the British Isles and is also the reasons for that and it comes back to the data and the quality of the short-term forecast models right and it's interesting because if you have a look into it that there are a choice quote from one of the ERI things I found the whatever of the art of the company that makes dark sky and that the quota goes like this dark sky doesn't make any effort to identify and compensate for chaotic storm behaviour so it's primary point is to tell you what the arrangement on the next very short period of time 510 minutes half an hour our site is not interested in the long-term forecast is managed and what's what what was it like it says is not on a compensate is doesn't have a complex molecule is a very short-term port forecast and the beauty that is actually short-term weather prediction is kinder is relatively straightforward provided you have enough low localised weather information is the reason you think the reason that is and emphasised our short-range prediction in a lake and most of your traditional avenues for forum getting weather predictions is that most people don't care enough about the weather to constantly check their phone every 30 minutes of day-long tickets and if you do that you would know what was going to happen to most people only care enough to wake located in the morning before they had to work to know whether they need to bring a coat with them bring an umbrella in the absolutely absolutely they were talking just before the show you're so mentioned another app called radar scope can you tell you about that yes a radio scope arm and if you look for our lease to a radar app and an application on any device android Windows computers marks are OS devices if you want out what you can get nice views of via a radar loop for your area arm and you want to know what the professionals use are used to get radio scope and and and don't let me scare you by saying that there it's it's very a forget how much they charge for it but it is very inexpensive arm on the App Store and checking now like like I'm the dirt is a universal and frail SO it's 10 $10 US arm and you would have both the are the the iPhone and iPad version the Mac version is is our very very dollars US arm but when you when you have the app you you get access to all of the different work with weather forecasters refer to as the products so when you're like I'm gonna fly through scope break now in radar scope arm you get access to for instance the super arouse reflectivity till wine which is usually what you would do that your average arm of view of the radar and Doppler radar in your area you get things like arm the vertically integrated liquid so basically you're looking at liquid in the atmosphere 20 30,000 feet up arm and although if you've ever been driving along the road and you looked in the distance and see ringing following from a cloud and it looks like it's fine to discover it's not quite the ground yet that product would tell you oh there is rain above you it's coming down it just hasn't done to you in because it's 20,000 feet up and following from the big thunder under a cloud arm it radar scope is wonderful in that it you can adjust the settings all bear and say will show me six frames of data or 20 frames from data and hit loop and a can of loops like an enemy together with arm So you can and and especially with iPhone and iPad version are you can use the location services on your phone to have it pinpoint exactly on the map where you're at and then very easily tell based on the loop I wore that storms gonna compare that storm that if you turn on the TV and and listen to the the what a guy he got older strong coming in the area you can look on the applicants can completely miss me based on that speed is going and where it's going or oral way met this ones can this was not a real topless arm and dark sky is is basically gives you a little snapshot of of an aisle of dockside because I own my own dogs and I have to walk outside quite a pet so dark sky was grateful for when I lived closer into the city and couldn't really get a good view of the horizon arm to know what's coming that that I could do Elkanah can I take the dogs out right now and not get wet and it's an adult it would tell you so you know the rain is supposed to start in 20 minutes was agreed after 10 minutes to get them out lock them and get them back inside before it began raining radar scope will give you a little bit bigger view because of course you can zoom out and see what would storms are doing five 600 miles away from you but based on health faster moving and you get all timestamps on each frame you can kind of roughly see our world is big fright that's 500 miles west of us know right now it's it's 8:30 AM here over this one should be to us before 5 o'clock this evening so with Sumitomo the yard today I need to do it early afternoon before the rain gets your arena I love radio scope air it's in that it is kind of allows you to become your own you know amateur weather forecaster arm and in the more you look at the data and the more you want storms plus overhead you'll just get better at it call well from Mars from my perspective in Australia one of the things that we sort of have rolled our eyes at the years as the year is Yahoo weather because rates are the act as the iPhone comes of Yahoo weather is generally accepted that the Yahoo weather is not really up to snuff compared to are the main local source in Australia is the Australian bureau of meteorology or the great miracles in bomb BOM short so you had not been on the bomb but you know the minute she is at such a bad teenage joke anyway the point is I see I was not trying to be cool like they are right because if you use that's a teenage slaying that just instantly make you call anyway our sorry okay so over the years though that's improved now the Yahoo data astray comes from a company called dumb weather zone and what they do is AAC draw their data from a multitude of organisations in the eight Asia-Pacific region one of them is the bureau of neurology but they have their own meteorologists that interpret and model the data themselves so that's all well and good but even so I don't use the native weather app on my phone because I find to be the Yahoo data even as coming from weather zone everything is still not as good or is not as accurate as the bureau bureau of meteorology so I actually use pocket whether witches are by shifty jelly and they are what they do is they pole from visitors from their blog by pole various FTP FTP and arm HTTP sites for the bureau of neurology at various intervals during the day they parcel of that data and that's what is that the data is that that's the day-to-day use pocket whether everything they do is purely just a window into the bureau of meteorology because the bomb website is really not very great now that same here in the US the them National Weather Service which is run by Noah the National oceanic and atmospheric administration their website look straight out of 1994 arm you bomb apply to their credit aisle Oliver Downer that they have available they give to you on the website you can get out everything because it's taxpayer funded arm shot but in some of some of the products they put out or look really really horrible sorrows the quality map and what the colours are everything but arm they give you everything they present you all the data that they themselves are using to protect you you absolutely and that the problem that I've got though we are in Australia is that it's great that data is up there it's all there just like you saying for run National Weather Service senior astray with your mineralogy all the data is there but you know pocket power that the software he can still spite information but we don't have dark sky in Australia we don't have some of the short-term modelling stuff and you know is still other models aren't that great and is mainly because there is a massive area Australia as it is a big country into the service area it's really not that much more than the United States and the population is a fraction of of that of that it's it's like 1/10 if and most of your population is on the coasts that set exactly so all the weather stations or the vast majority were stations are basically we can't perform well the government is not gonna put money into putting weather stations absolutely everywhere all over the countryside because they are inaccessible because they're nowhere near populated centres you which Mason expensive to maintain there would be a stall be hard to get out to to prepare absolutely so all it's always reasons all the same results are reasons why everything like you tell of many cases more expensive here all outsourced all those reasons apply to weather forecasting so I do feel and it's unfortunate but that is I think I don't it will ever get us like dark sky in Australia I don't think we ever get that under various which wages your jetstream fluidly does your weather pretty much come west to east as it is to worst are West to West to East so it's most of the weather is coming off of the Indian Ocean on to the client now crossing the continent before it gets to the population generally yes is that the fronts tend to move up also from separately from South Art in North so okay that's that's that's that that would blow my mind because we most come into come in from the Western income sometimes come from the south-west and north-west but it usually a westerly direction we we are Rare instances were built there will be whether coming from the east of something usually that's related to a storm coming off the Atlantic but you never happens and you look at the radar and it's going the other direction while that's weird that there is and if there is an effect at the equator where there is a swelling effects and is that sort of you were not close enough to the equator to get too much of that arm boats are in any case it's our yet it is interesting that before we get into because I start a medicine mixed some extreme weather which was so touched on briefly before but I gullible death about that void little but that is one of our second sponsor of the episode which is our life X spelt LIF X and it's a smart lightbulb that gives you previously unheard of control of your lighting each lightbulb is Wi-Fi enabled and can give you light whatever colour the rainbow you like it's an energy efficient LED lightbulb itching control with a nap on a smart phone it's got over a thousand lumens available and it's incredibly bright only consumes 18 W of power that is at maximum though most rooms will only use behalf that so controlling the brightness colour renders a 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really soon elements as this demo bobs and the kids set took control and had a little that'll be disco are in the main lounge area had a great time actually was it was a lot of fun and that my wife's 40th birthday parties coming up in a few days and were gonna be decently rather similar then so they are a lot of fun and I really do enjoy them so our life expels our shipping today for any took 99 dollars US with free shipping worldwide simply head over to life X that spelt LIF X.co/pragmatic to learn more and enter the coupon code pragmatic for 15% off the total price of your order thank you to life X for sponsoring the show. But before we move on to our extreme weather I just wanted to touch a little bit on the the computing power of models and just what yours leads to our unit we talk about you getting all these different data points arm one of the problems of courses more data you need them or to be power you need arm and and I had came across a little research prior to the show and came across an article that that is about a year old and I couldn't find any more recent information on this so in a take this with a grain of salt things might have changed since this was put out this was as of August 2013 basically said that the our GFS model arm which is the arm the court which stands for global forecast system which is the official model that the US government are fines as a part of Noah arm is currently ran on a supercomputer out of West Virginia which is nickname tied and it has are 213 Tflop and looking at the arm the result was a great website called our top 500 at Oro which keeps track of the top 500 supercomputers in the world aren't based on that teraflops ranking that would rake it somewhere around number 180 to 200 under supercomputer list arm and this article also stated that they were planning to upgrade this computer in 2015 from 213 Tflop up to 19 are 1950 Tflop West based on the that supercomputer list would bump it somewhere into you know from from the upper hundreds and in 200 range down to the second one this an accurate number arm: the bigger it would be above 100 it would be that would put it in the tarps authority of the outfitters and the role actually based on teraflops that would put it somewhere and that this is as this is as of June 2014 the list and looking at this this would put it at ranking number 16 to 17 for four of the type supercomputer now granted by the time 2015 rolls around atlases can change your life arm and is and they said that when they did the previous upgrade which took the computer from 90 Tflop to 213 they so on average of her 15% accuracy bump arm in the in the GFS model arm and I know I know at least for winter weather forecasting Gallardo alarm the winter amateur meteorologist that I… Great weather form that you use in the winter to track this one is formed arm they prefer the European model of the GFS because it's a little bit more accurate although everyone is helpful for this 2015 upgrade that are maybe week we are accuracy bump enough that were on par with the European model for a change now when I say it's more accurate than European model in its it's like a 5 to 10% accuracy differences it does it's not too far behind but it's enough behind that arm if if the GFS is sometimes saying that work and immediate 15 inches of snow in the European scene got 9 inches of snow chances are it's gonna be more like 90 appendages rather than 14 to 15 in understand why it is that that's the wonderful thing is that I know that some people wonder what IT is a supercomputer for well guess what this is what we use for razor actually practically useful arm you know which is yet why the reasonable talk amateur so thank you thank you for listening at that stuff because I arm i.e. I was hoping would you I have no idea about any of the other supercomputer services and I'm sure that the information is out on the web somewhere. You if you did for Google searches further arm I just found that interesting because I knew it was a big computer I just didn't know exactly the numbers on shop no bonbon grabber talked about that because yet that there is a lot of can grant mathematical computing power is raw power that goes into predicting the weather these days and people still complain about that anyway okay so extreme weather and I guess specifically why so extreme weather I'm not talking about small localised storms on talking about the two big ones which are our tornadoes quite quite obviously and of course there their bigger brothers the cyclone/Hurricane//the/typhoon yellow which are basically does big bad tornadoes they don't spinners that I blow as fast are generally in the middle but they have such a huge area that that sort of brings its own set of problems so the thing is I just want to discreetly touch on the whole naming conventions because the AIP was AIS cyclone is different from a Hurricane is different from a typhoon will know they're not there just different names for the same things different parts of the world call them different things and the funny thing is also that and is a link in the show notes to there's a good Wikipedia article to go through all the differences and it is a table that shows all the different wind speeds between which and and then the wind speeds are usually rated at Dar one minute sustain tenant sustained art and peak gusts so you look at this table show you well between this range in this range of speeds than that is called in this part of the world is called a Hurricane category one it's because cyclone category to its core typhoon it's called a severe typhoon Yates called a tropical depression depending upon where you are what lingo they use is all based on how fast the speed is at the eye of the storm are pretty much in the in the wind gusts in such so that's the first one so I desired someone told try and convince me years ago that are different site somehow cyclone was different from a Hurricane is no know his sister different name for the same thing arm fortunately tornadoes are generally called tornadoes wherever you are I think certainly knew that I'm aware of any here but you occasionally see some of them refer to as water spouts and any renewal which is basically a tornado body that exists all the you know you'll see them off the coast of calm in off the beach sometimes Florida for a Florida here in the US gets a lot of them off like see down in Miami or toner weighing off the coast what we just had a tornado are in a Hurricane come through very recently that was the first storm of the season that are started off the coast of Florida and came up the coast and and and graze the Outer Banks of North Carolina surpassed by and there were quite a few wondrous belts that were printed off the coast as it kind of love in a ventured its way up the east coast along the Hellenic seaboard I think the most dangerous part of our water spouts as if there's lots of sharks in the menu get a shark made a rape that is generally terrified tourists we can know and that if there ever is a time if there's ever a time when you find yourself in that situation apparently a chainsaw is all you need to survive a swallowed by a shark I'm happy to say you are unfortunate enough to say that that I've actually did not see it had to be but I think basically is that by viewing my Twitter stream while it was going on I felt like Joel you have not lived mate you have not lived as we have seen that movie and you have just been aghast at the fact that they made that movie and even more shocked that they've made a second one you I am so looking forward to seeing so that I can laugh at it and it's gotta be brilliant anyhow okay so shark matters to one side and stick with tornadoes and Hurricane of the Willows okay so sorry I was I didn't grow up with with with not have as many tornadoes here on the are listed is because of Virginia arm say they do out the Midwest and most of my experience with tornadoes arm were related to Hurricane is usually the tornadoes who will happen when we have a Hurricane coming off the Atlantic and that Hurricane's rotation or clause smaller rotations smaller vortices the forum own and called tornadoes in the area I remember arm about the mid to thousands it was a particularly strong Hurricane, Hurricane Ivan that hit the golf coast and then came up through our inner team up to the southern US and not that of the coast over of the landed then go back out of the ocean but the storm was strong enough that it caused tornadoes all down the coast as it made its way up the coast arm and we had quite a bit of them here in Virginia and quite a bit for Isis have a dozen we don't get a lot of them and have a lightless experience with with a member of Senatorial and person a bin near 111 has been a few miles away but but have never actually seen the effects of a directly my wife she grew up in Indiana arm and offer her growing up in school they were made to practice tornado drills and the appointment of sirens and and the children are instructed he noted to get you know the safe places within a building you can get in order to to protect yourself in the event that what happens in any contrast here and genuinely would have tornado sirens arm and and this is something that once we are married and there was a tornado unabashedly warrant the sirens going off what you're talking about we do not have to ahead of sirens. She was awestruck like really this is all for you know arm how can you not have the right exactly says that this is irresponsible you know it has a really don't have tornadoes there were been all echo that sentiment because we don't generally get operators in Australia and some we have we had an incidence are only a year and 1/2 ago are aware next tropical cyclone are triggered a bunch of water spouts just off the coast and one or two of them actually touch down on land they were gone inside 60 seconds they were really really break but it was the same kind of thing that but the really big bad tornadoes require this that right set of circumstances geographically with your horses what they called me over the centre of the United States tornado alley because that that's why the parts of the earth where all the conditions are right to create tornadoes so our bottom line is just real quickly to compare and contrast the oh Hurricane cyclones and their huge they cover hundreds of kilometres or miles in area gave that that the wind speeds in the centre did not get anywhere near as fast as in a tornado so you looking at a category three cyclone for example Hurricane similar kind of wind speeds greater than hundred and 30 climbers are now which is greater than 80 court mph are one-minute sustained wind speeds and you because you damage to your house whereas our even a small tornado like an F1 or the modified F1 our scale is gonna cause damage to your house but the differences tornadoes are highly localised so it is possible for a small tornado to rip through a suburban take out five houses but if you cyclone is blowing it is of the windspeed is gonna take out all the houses or most of them wrote so and so it so that the two scales that these these types of storms are measured on is that tornado scale is measured on something called the Fuji the tornado damage scale which was developed in 1970 wine by arm Theodora for Jeter are at the University of Chicago arm and and basically the way tornadoes are rated on a scale from 0 to 5 arm in an F0 are and you have to help me out here with metric but if zero is basically anything less than 73 mph arm in FF wine 73 to 112 and F2 was 113 to 157 and F3 is 158 to 2 of six and a full wrist to have 7 to 260 and F5 is 261 318 and of course there have actually been tornadoes measured about five above 318 but that the super super super rare note the contrast that the tornado that the Hurricane scale was known as the Safra Simpson scale arm which our art was was developed I think by two people whose names were Safra and Simpson so thus they share the name arm and in your her. Hurricane's are referred to as category wind to 2 to 3 to 4 to 5 and just a contrast that a category one Hurricane 74 to 95 mph arm a category two was 96 to 110 three which are three is a category three Hurricane disc is known as the first major size Hurricane is a 111 to 2 129 fours 130 to 156 and five is 157 or higher so are off category five Hurricane which is known as the most intense are our us a size Hurricane which on the scale was listed as catastrophic damage will occur a high percentage of framed homes will be to destroy with total roof failure and wall collapse voluntariness and power poles will isolate residential areas power outages will last for weeks and possibly months most areas will be uninhabitable for weeks and months so that's 157 Marlborough win comparing that the tornadoes a 157 Marlborough win tornado was only enough to so it goes off to F3 for F5 so so arm even the largest most destructive Hurricane's is just a mid-sized tornado as follows windspeed yet that's it but the thing is interesting is that everyone looks at the damage that the difference storms will cause and the real are these tornadoes are terrible said everything everything apart but what they don't see it all was less visible perhaps is the fallout afterwards and the fallout from a cyclone Hurricane typhoon is always greater in terms of arm things like localised flooding widespread damage to central services so you tornado will take out the oh worse case may be a suburb or two I know but your smalltown efforts authority is in a section of a large town you don't don't get me wrong that's terrible and I I seriously yoke in all of this and I will make light of the fact you people die in these extreme weather events okay that's it it's it's a horrible terrible thing don't they do not disassemble tries to point out he is all saying is that it's a different set of tragedies and the tragedy of our of a cyclone in in my experience has been are the constant ongoing wins for our great days at a time it just overhead power lines as get destroyed actually destroyed and so you venue without power for the eight days weeks at a time so I only had I read to you that the the the description of the damage of the top Hurricane the description of the damage of the top tornado and F5 reads assaying strong frame houses are a level of foundations swept away on a Mobil size muscles fly through the air in excess of our hundred dollars trees are debarked Chicago stripped off the tree arm and then it just sums up bussing incredible phenomena will occur arm and NEC you don't get that level of damage in a Hurricane by like for instance are in again eight this is my personal experience on the east coast are down and in North Carolina there is a little spit of land that sticks out from the coast referred to as the other banks is basically are a string of Singh and Boris that that are strung together by a road arm and the little islands are connected and and there's a lot of our it's a great vacation spot on the beach houses rental properties that sort of thing but are that the that let that little spit of sample so for out from the mean sure that there is a quite a large sound in between us and Boris and the actual mainland arm and one of the problems of the other banks houses when hurricane cancer is not that the wind damage in granite you get when damage and industry think the problem is all of that wind from this giant rotating storm is forcing the wider full-year ocean through the inlets into that sound and in the sound depth which is normally only like 456 10 feet at most will rise to say 15 or 16 feet and then when the storm passes over and the wind shifts because remember it's it's a swirling cyclone and went when it passes overhead the wind will shift from being one direction to the other and it was like to suck that water back out of the sound and there is so much wider and there is 90 were forced to go that rather than going out the inlets it will go over the land and push everything back out to sea or in the case of the banks which the probably been having the last couple years as it's been making new inlets it it kite diet it split the island and have arm and and and and they've had to build a temporary bridge arm of the spire which likely with this latter are keen it didn't do very much damage to the rail the repair fairly quickly arm boat but that that in the banks there are houses there are that that 15 years ago there was a house there are now that that's the ocean arm in a part as I don't want is now gone arm just from erosion arm of the young Hurricane the most of the damage is just what they coldly refer to a storm surge switches which is the goal the wider coming onshore from from no these strong winds over like a 400 mile area just pushing the ocean off onto the land and the winner storm receives a bit of flowing back out almost like a very slow methodical deliberate tsunami except in coming in is in one big wave it's it's steady over a 12 hour period exactly right and storm surges cause a lot of damage particularly you because wherever they go in order to actually gain and maintain their strength cyclone is Hurricane typhoon state they need a body of water that's got yoke that that swarm in order to actually maintain their intensity so what typically happens as once they cross our onto land they vary very quickly lose speed they lose energy and they start to die so inevitably the storm surge and the coastal areas of the ones that hit the worst so you and that's that's typically the way it goes but when I do devolve that turn into what we would call a tropical low or tropical rain depression they can still cause flooding from that point just the wind is less of an issue it is the fact that you know they can dump 10 inches of rain on a small glass by a short amount of time in exactly exactly so so one other one other issue you are saying about arm you know that as a common sure that they will dissipate also are I actually arm was unfortunate enough to miss out on this just this past Hurricane that I keep mentioning the other banks are some very good friends of mine were actually vacationing there when the storm here and my wife and I were supposed to be there with them and and and do do our personal circumstances we we were unable to go with them this year arm but they they elected to ride out the storm they did not evacuate England and they just stayed in the beachhouse of the storm and the reason they did so was that went when arm of a Hurricane you'll see this you'll see Hurricane like the photo on on radar of this massive storm that stretches like it's equivalent of two or three states in size 6 United States provinces are not sure how big your provinces are your local areas of government are in Australia but in the US at least arm you know Hurricane sometimes in your royal write-up of the US it will take up like 23 states with a plan must answer this is a massive storm but generally the really strong winds the Hurricane force Windsor are at least on a category wanted to retreat a storm originally ride around the centre of the storm right around the Hurricane inside that's the moment that's a strong aspirant and at least on the golf when the landmasses to the north of the storm or on the Atlantic coast when it's the worst of the storm there are parts of the land that were the eye hits that that's a 30 miles down the beach to the left well will only experience a 50 to 60 to 70 mile prior winds were 30 miles to the beach to the rate will get hundred and 10 mile prior winds because of the different bits under the side of the eye that your online when it comes ashore and they lost out on their beachhouse was signed that the court good side of the eye that the thing left side of the eye because at that point the DIA had team onshore blown over the shore rotated and was coming back off the shore and the loss of strength were they only experienced are between 50 and say 75 which is like a week category one strength wind arm and just up the coast from them 30 or 40 miles away at the Cope keep a lookout they received category to some category three force went so so in a between 100 and hundred 20 mph arm and and what he said that they were out that their house in our communities are elevated each houses are in a Carnarvon stilt is at the house or call about the window circle albeit it rained alight there wasn't that big of a deal arm whereas up the coast there was like in a major sponsor a Jamaica property damaged and so so you have Internet interesting phenomena like that with with Hurricane is based on where you're at relatives that I work comes onshore cool so just because you were a couple of extra couple cyclone now all Hurricane experiences there to tell you about a couple of minds just the two arm while will see many three CI drop in in a town called Rockhampton and its right of the Tropic of Capricorn so we are on the southern edge of where cyclones will typically are, sure so Rockhampton reserve 4540, saying that inland from the actual coast which is about 30 miles inland similar and down as a result it is usually taken the edge off by the time it gets into this to the town anyway so in the 1991 are ex-tropical Cyclone Ajoy basically crossed the coast north of Rockhampton what relatively North but it dumped all its rain in the catchment area for the Fitzroy River and the Fitzroy Rivers the river goes through our Rockhampton and it was the our third largest flood event in recorded Dars settled history and is a settled history since the open since white settlement yes and Sam it was settled there in my 18 early 1800s where I was in anyway so that was quite interesting experience are because the city was cut off for three weeks because of flooding so that the airport is built on low lying land so they couldn't take off and any planes so that was interesting there's another one in I think it was 93 and it basically was another cycle but I got to us it was ex-tropical cyclone but it was still gusting pretty impressively and it rained for essentially what felt like about three weeks it was less than that that was about two weeks and two days I think that it did literally does rain and as it was always a was a driving rain that you get a cyclone with wave after wave and it's just that I know how to describe it but you know any variance you will experience the same sort of thing with one hurricane Sandy you remember yes that the associate Andy was a weird circumstance where are its forms Hurricane in the Christian it came up the coast well out to sea and then rate as it passed by Washington DC and Baltimore it just took a left a horrid left-hand turn and crashed into the coast on way around New York City and it was large enough that are as it got up the coast kind of do is to us arm for about arm 1618 hour. We were we were buffeted by its bands the different bands as it came onshore and we were at the time living in a kinder unit that was on the first floor of the building that was a corner unit so we had windows facing a bully nor in windows facing to the east arm and for the first say 8 to 12 hours of of these bands coming and are the rain was pretty much blowing steadily up against the east face of the building arm are almost like horizontal rain coming right into 2 to the windows arm and then as the storm got further north and made its turn arm and do the way rotated all of the web the wind was coming in from the north north-west arm and we had our leaking in our condo under the windows because this building was about 15 to 20 years old and the clocking around the window had headcount of Dragon a cracked dry rotted and that horizontal reinforcing into those cracks were the clocking force rain into under that the window and actually in a balaclava went along that the walls rate on it was first on the one side of the room as the wind was coming that way and as it shifted it shifted to the other side of the room arm yet and that that like I said with against that that's the recycle and that's what you get unit which is relentless pounding for hours and hours and hours for that's right and and it's it's a very different it is of the very year eerie experience that the fact that that the sound of that damn of the wind and the rain just unrelenting and yet it's there was as it also won't more recently arm where we went out again recently with the ex-tropical cyclone Oswald it was in the 2013 and it was so widespread in south-east Queensland so that that was actually hit down here and in Brisbane and it was so the damage is so widespread that we personally were out of we had no electricity for about four days and do everything in the fridge and freezer spoiled maths rollouts and we basically you know it will fortunate that it was only I say only if you consider greater south-east Queensland so I 3,000,003 1/2 million people out of the greater Southeast area one quarter of houses had their power lost for a period of four or more hours during that that that for five day period we were just unlucky to be in one of the areas that the repair crews got to last or towards the end of the list lucky us anyway so we were without power for days but fortunately arm my in-laws they had power so we were quick either we went to their place to charge our iPods iPhones and so on and are yet we ate at their place because we couldn't do it we had we had a barbecue but the barbecue was waterlogged and now we can go to fire a stay fire because it was still even even after the rain stopped it was still very windy for a few days afterwards so keeping something burning was quite a difficult but anyway that's nothing of course compared to go I've I've had friends Rycroft who were from Townsville and The Oaks and Cairns and they'd been arm that actually live through cyclones where they lost the roof of the house I mean this is all nothing compared to the other side damage it can do that just existed to wrap up quickly on on the extreme weather though is that I find that I find cyclones I think do more damage in terms of terms of overall net cost but because you tend to see them coming you have an opportunity to prepare G you get out and evacuate that you have those hopefully unless it is aware of circumstances sometimes there are word circumstances but most the time you have minimum 3 to 5 days warning sometimes longer than that I and and and in and if the union of the storm doesn't change like the models were good job at predicting you know they pretty much nowhere it's gone ahead and what populations can be affected and they have an accurate prediction of what the sponsors will be so based on your elevation Dell you know issue evacuation orders Lisa in the US still image evacuation orders along with Soviet residents to that unit get England about at least for the next 48 hours the board of the windows of the house absolutely absolutely say exactly the same here and is I find that though because I see did that I did some work in the in Richardson many years ago and I was stunned walking along the corridors in see tornado shelter a little sticker on the next to the doors some of the Dawson is a tornado shelters and I was down there at a particular time when AER a tornado had actually ripped through Fort Worth which was not yet is not too far away from Dallas and is it was all very friends only three or four weeks previously and it was all very fresh in everyone's minds numb and I am thinking I suffer walking around this building in the in Richardson and thinking okay was the nearest tornado shelter never to think about this before but if there was a tornado that's where I would have to go and hide and I guess that's the thing that made makes tornado so terrifying is not so much the fact that they are highly localised damage yellow however the fact that they are far less predictable you don't see tend to see them coming specifically that's what makes them I think more terrifying here in the morning for them can be as full sometimes as 5 to 15 minutes on and just think about all the time during the day arm in which you are our night near a computer I don't have the TV on line or looking at a weather out and and you know let's say you're taking a shower or you're you're doing the dishes or you're in your car listening to a podcast tonight unit so so there is so many instances in which it was like becoming an and a tornado sure honours in here and there by Foreign Minister Warren new but people just don't see the warnings because it's hard to to get a warning out when you only have five minutes notice and get everyone's attention has tornado alarms that your migraine race men and in that that's how the midwest helps with it as they just put on these big holes every you know in every town around the whole area this giant siren that goes off and everyone can hear it it said that they do it at this it's almost like an Aries sarin back yet forward to that are in fact I think after war were to happen they repurposed many of our air raid sirens as printed assignments arm the answer so everyone in the entire town a matter where you are what you doing you can hear the sound of it and so you know you know there is a tornado on the ground somewhere again in the shop so are what you think is quickly were untouchable for a wrap up our is spaghetti forecasting with regard right extreme weather so something that that you mention specifically this will have a quick chat about so spaghetti this is the that the trauma spaghetti model and the reason it is referred to as a spaghetti model is that our when when the different models will try to predict a cyclone again arm it will you know with with say a winter storm or a summer storm are mainly trying to figure out where the fronts can move through and what the rainfall amounts can be or what the snowfall amounts can be that sort of thing with a Hurricane you want to figure out where the ideas and words want to be arm so a spaghetti model works apply to a coloured line on a map to to have that models prediction of exactly where they think that I was going to go and thus they could then predict where the most damages can be based in what I was saying earlier with you no one wants other I'll be less than the other sides of it still really hard for them to accurately predict more than just a few hours away exactly where that bad side of the eyes going to hit arm by a split that the weather spaghetti models workers say the North American model applied a line you know line a and and the European model flightline BN and the Canadian model plant plotline see more then when you superimpose all these together over a map it'll look like strings of Lexi spaghetti the different coloured lines and an and you and in its all the different possible routes the models are saying it will take and just like with this ensemble matters are for Kassel Relay and they generally will take the ensemble all the lines and average them together to figure out where they they will arm they unit work whether hurricanes can you exactly yes call so there is a great map here are so so those there is the Noah maintains a website section of the website which is known as historical Hurricane tracks and after a Hurricane actually happens there a you know they're able to sell cholesterol the models this is the actual route that I took and here's the actual route that every I have every Hurricane has taken over the past 10 years and so this map is wonderful and that it's just it has tons and tons and tons of diesel coloured lines on it with a name beside each one of showing the root of every Hurricane's you can see generally where they are here on the coast in any you occasionally see this long line of separate from all the others with this one storm took this aware returned most of take and that's Dudu the Butterfly effect something about this. That particular week goals that storm do something that usually none of the storms do arm which just again reinforces how horrid it is this enough forecasters help examiners exactly and and that's where I'd like to to wrap it up right Aries is the fact that this is not easy predicting the weather is very very difficult it's a very very complicated problem in fact you what you're essentially doing is you're trying to predict the future and is you this so many inputs the summary variables and we don't have the technology to model absolutely every molecule of air in the entire world are and we are having a good advocate for technology to could to compute that we don't have the models exist you it's hard is very hard and I feel like Job weather prediction is better today than it ever has been in all of human history and yet people still know they say it's gonna rain this weekend but you wherever you no great sidewalks with the wind the clock back 20 years 10 years even you know only things have come so far and they're getting better all the time and continue to get better but ultimately stop blaming the weather person cannot say whether men are weather person because you know honestly weather prediction is hard very hard and honestly arm if if you don't take that away from what we've talked about this episode then yet maybe maybe the paid attention is on something else I will I would just want to mention like what if you pull up are a a lie have disabled the one at the values that can give you a general forecasters one hour call today and I like it because it has a very nice learner face them sometimes it's dad is the greatest but but I like its interface arm like I'm looking at today's weather it seemed there is a 61% chance of going to ring today arm what many people don't realise is that the forecaster will will look at the models in the models all will basically so will this area rate here is to have some rain so the forecast will basically draw little circle around that area and and LC based on the model what chance that there is going to be rain somewhere in that area and when you see this can be a 60% chance that 60% chance of the small geographical region that you live in and that that that area may be 10 miles wide 30 miles x 50 miles wide that depends on your local forecast area but in the end if later in the day it rains in a couple places in that area they consider that a successful forecast maybe it didn't rain in the exact spot over your house Blake it rained in that area and an end in it was almost impossible for them to know whether you're a particular frontline is going to have rain enough versus you know maybe the storm passed and just missed you 2 miles away but that that was a successful forecast because it is almost impossible without you know a lot more data and a lot more computing power before they will be able to do in a forecast that that accurate if you'd like to talk more about this arm you can reach me on Twitter at John CGS JH NCH IDG EY and check out my writing@distortion.com are if you'd like to send any feedback please use the feedback from the website and that's we also find that the shadows of this episode on the pod casts pragmatic you can also find pragmatic show on Twitter to see show announcements and other related stuff arm this episode was proudly sponsored biometrics and I'd like to thank them for sponsoring a show if you're looking for the Mac software that can do metrics remember specifically visit this URL many tricks or one word.com/pragmatic more information about the amazingly useful apps and use a discount code pragmatic 25 to 25% off the total price of your order hurry it's only for a limited time also I thank life acts for sponsoring this episode if you have a great LED light bulbs energy-efficient remotely controllable colourful and just plain fun to use remember you specifically use this URL life acts that spelt LIF X.co/pragmatic and use the coupon code pragmatic of 50% off the total price of your order and of course finally I have to thank Joel for coming on the show thank you so much for coming on and talking about the weather if people want to get in touch with you what's the best way they should do that well these days I'm I'm pretty Twitter report prolific so it Twitter I am just my first name and last name which is G OEL HO USMA and Satchel Hausmann and then Ari can reach out via the contact form I won my website which is also Joel Housman.com fantastic awesome we can all stop worrying about whether or not it's supposed to be raining and greater smile and be happy you thanks for having me I know I love to get are geeky about the weather in Armagh a local our RMR pinion bus whether sources are so was a former whether by now the part of the actual Washington posts are weather section of the website is a few of those guys I follow online arm and then I warn anyone if you follow me on Twitter and there is a very keen about to happen or there is a blizzard and the winner be prepared for weather tweets awesome wallet thank you for coming on and I really appreciate you sharing and are and you thanks again for listening thanks to our giant�
Duration 1 hour, 25 minutes and 23 seconds Direct Download

Show Notes

Related Links:

Weather Apps Joel and John Use:

Movies Mentioned in this Episode:



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People

Joel Housman

Joel Housman

Joel writes on his blog.

John Chidgey

John Chidgey

John is an Electrical, Instrumentation and Control Systems Engineer, software developer, podcaster, vocal actor and runs TechDistortion the Engineered Network and technical whitepapers at Control System Space. John is a Chartered Professional Engineer in both Electrical Engineering and Information, Telecommunications and Electronics Engineering (ITEE) and a semi-regular conference speaker.

John has produced and appeared on many podcasts including Pragmatic and Causality and is available for hire for Vocal Acting or advertising. He has experience and interest in HMI Design, Alarm Management, Cyber-security and Root Cause Analysis.

You can find him on the Fediverse sometimes called Pleroma or Mastodon.