Pragmatic 58: I Want My Hovercar

20 February, 2015

CURRENT

The next disruption in transportation is coming to a car near you soon. We walk through the history and evolution of personal transportation and look to the future.
Transcript available
You mess with my head so far did not mean to hang up on you all again first recording out of it a fresh recording is that that's a bonus read them located sorry it data siding is to make a great introduction welcome to pragmatic pragmatic is a weekly discussion show concertina practical application of technology exploring the real trade-offs of great ideas are transponder products and services that can change allies nothing is as simple as it seems this episode is sponsored by Lynda.com Lynda.com is the easy and affordable way to learn where you can instantly stream thousands of courses read by experts in the fields of business software web development graphic design and lots and lots more kickstart your New Year and challenges opulent something you visit LY NDA.com/pragmatic to get a free 10 day trial is something for everyone in their it is already February so if you've ever wanted was a new what are you waiting for this episode is also sponsored by extrasensory devices and their amazing Biloxi for all an incident like me attachment your smart phone or tablet visit yes devices.com/pragmatic more information about their handy luckily for all that no modern photographer should be without and take advantage of a special discount exclusively for pragmatic listeners will talk more about both of them during the show on your host John GG joined today by my co-host the cousin has gone Vic Goodsell now you I am very well thanks for asking our little weasel download something and it's gotta be a short shelf and that saying that pages are there again refresh my memory are going for okay very good yes indeed the reform pages notes I spent all the time and this one that's okay one of them want to clear off the deck for a while so will see how we go before you get stuck and that was what I say are two things first of all arm a big huge thank you to everybody that bought a pragmatic T-shirt they will be off in the mail to you shortly if they are not already depending of course upon when you listen to this timeshifting and podcast recordings and all that other blah blah this is not live so the habit so thank you so much to all of them this week I was a grand total of 28 T-shirts never taxi about three times what I expected so a huge thank you to everyone that did to the guys and girls we had both armed kinds of shirts and they both sold in a reasonable number so that's that's awesome so are we not and were not enormous podcast but you know I am so grateful to have far fans the show that the light in a much greater shirt so one it is it is by definition limited edition so thanks again to everybody and another quick reminder that the stickers will remain up for sale for a while longer arm the little other little stickers are proven to be are the most popular and are there been a few sightings in the wild already people have sent pictures in of them so if you'd like to send them in after you've got them in your stuck them on something feel free to do so are now probably retweeting Barker's status such cute little stickers the little ones are my rolling one between my fingers right now it's about the size of 1/4 actually the 2 inch once so anyway the go and yes and having 1/4 is because remember I visited North America anyway this is not 2 inches God while you're right it's not as this boy was that one point hang on it's the one that I because it's 1 to yes raise 1 inch to 1 inch 1 inch and 3 inch that's right because some I'm thinking 2.5 cm because it typifies and uses 1 inch oil by the metric system again foiled by I can't win actually a joke about that but I really wish we embrace the metric system be careful you may be lynched by a fellow American so I may be legible by fellow Americans but I don't care with you as a base mouth of so much simpler guide you I know it is I know it is very very much so okay but never mind that our week and we shall we liken a change in any time soon seabed accept reality okay go Imperial and go metric at the same time that way a pleasing everybody whilst Woodside take me lovely okay I'll talk about transportation evolution lease at the Tyler written down and the reason I dive I want to about this is because I'm a big fan of another podcast called a Sim car I'm also a big fan of Tesla and there's also been a lot of talk lately about arm self driving cars like the Google self driving car and an apple car which arm on a wait till my wrapup to you you can get what I think about an apple car but for the moment let's just leave that and however you know me as to what I think burning out so he is it will do I'd like to start with as I always do are the basics buildup in the beginning and then see what conclusions we can draw and warrant going this is I want talk about disruption and I know that's aware that I hate that he we go only use a few times this episode so you are free to either agree and nod and smile or you can hated along with me either way it does matter point is that our disruption and it's funny because people are very different ideas about what actually a disruption to transport actually means and I can I get frustrated and annoyed so I'm this is my take not saying it's absolutely right but let's see how we having stopped on explaining Massena starts and we think is a good sounds good night fine telemedicine going somewhere it's going to know that was and I need to start going somewhere so without further ado I'm now can start talking in straight direction not the gentle direction she can anyway I need to move a physical object from point A to point B somehow hence that is the problem so I could be transporting cargo or I could be transporting a person in a either or whatever so beyond the obvious needs, obviously cargo can handle more small sort of extremes they can handle extremes of acceleration arm orientation is in upside down in a inside-out mania inside out but certainly any orientation in the XYZ was the axes are beginning to handle under extreme temperatures generally speaking are the duration of the transit going to be much longer for cargo are as for going on survival of that abuse so no obviously there are exceptions things like lithium batteries for example which are in some countries you can't data take the monoplane are unless it's pressurised cargo say calderas on pressurised cargo will explode while potentially CAT5 densely are perishable foodstuffs by gaining its need refrigeration basically can't just carried out around how you like this does not cut it all are yes that's against, obviously guess but my I learned arm not that long ago a few years ago is nothing like plasma TVs sub east those from what I fairly needs their vertical yes that's right if you do if you turn upside down it ruins them ever so slightly and the LCDs also can't lie flat are generally are because the especially the older LCDs because the mass of the screen itself are is too great for it to handle a deflection in that access so you cite the weight of the screen in the centre can cause it to crack around the edges so I would hold it makes sense because you know those things are getting lighter and thinner and more delicate so if you lay flat then only a much larger of the surface area yes exactly acts as a service area increases than the amount of mass incentives being supported by because the mass in the centre will be growing at a faster rate than the circumference around the outside the perimeter should so the perimeter of circle circular TV so arm yet so I had so you there are exceptions obviously to those in terms of cargo but arm honestly that's pretty much all that I want talk about about cargo because Demeter is not interesting people and moving people around that's a lot more interesting and when it comes to disruptions to industries and sign that's the one that most people fixated on is well so are another point of order were talking about current physics right which at current physics and what is currently possible not to talk about transporters transmits teleporters converting managed energy and energy to matter and transmitting energy in this is not Star Trek there are no transporters Scotty there is no Scotty without hurling I am sorry but I know I know but no one can so where do we begin so let's start with five broad classifications of transportation with Gotland water rail those three oddly called ground-based which can make sense as a grouping and a causal air and space are space only being a new one in the last 67 years are an air of course really around 400 and 2030 years some I RIL having only been around for about 200 fiftieths years arm before that of course waters and water and land around forever YC I'd I did research how long it's been since we've had boats but I guess the Vikings had boats so the young Testament canoes and rafts along time before that so let's just say what has been around forever to practically okay now to further sub categorise these and a I'd like the reason I wanted to design a lockdown that the boundaries of the discussion because otherwise gone forever which is a real problem with me so I need to do this okay so we've got public commercial and private so are just quickly obviously our mama is not obvious or not but some so public is funded either partly on hold by government or governing body are commercially something that's done that's been funded partly or in whole by a commercial entity and you will pay to use their facility their equipment whatever it might be and private is that the individual who operates it or the individual that can pay someone else to operate or or consummate into it like a family member or a distant relative to driving a car for them either way they own the vehicle in question so those that the three broad categories so what is of most interest to me is going to be the land-based offer least initially selects let's cover land-based stuff and of that are not so interested in the boat angle because the problem with boats is that they're only really good we got water in the well-dressed sailors talk about water travellers to about revolutionising water travel that's great to you live in the middle of the United States or the middle of Australia or the middle of Europe and you look around you and see how much Aladdin you like nearby stock to go very far in our so not really yes the work toe and speak it was generally large bodies of water near you live are not well we have we have what we locally colleague's boat most people that have experience reflect the bigger great Lakes look at our election: puddles and my wife's from our Michigan then then she is very familiar with the the quote great Lakes which is that a lake know that's it's kinda like that that's not a knife but that's not the act you pretty much cool excellent well ego so only where I am it's all well and good to say obviously surrounded by water as a blight he is the problem right when you when you place like Sydney and Sydney is very much been built and evolved around the Sydney Harbour that's great you've got fairies that go back and forth and I save you a lot of time but once they built the Sydney Harbour Bridge and the harbour tunnel you know it it's almost as fast not quite almost as fast drive or two from Mum this is Sydney CBD across to Manly as it is to take a standard fairy mind you go Chris on the yard on the catamaran it's faster but you generally speaking the fairies are any quicker than driving all the trains generally speaking even in Sydney and Brisbane is definitely case because all the fairies we got a City Councilman got old-style monohull fairies and they'll take you up and down the river but the problem is the reaches around the city they it weaves in and out like like a confused snake and it's like well okay I can actually walk quicker one may not walk like a probably run and beat the ferry in some cases and that's over a reasonable distance simply because I can cut out about 655 km or 3 miles that that boat has travelling around the corner like it is run that far well you mean I could now bolster what lost the weight in your okay so arm so you're not not interested in both really not in terms of that so let's stick with land okay public transport do like public transport Vic are Adam actually have a whole lot of public transport experience either as a minute of the consumer in North America that's actually been a an ongoing issue in a lot of parts of North America and I'll be honest in Australia as well because both of our countries have evolved in the last 50 to 75 years surrounded by the automobile so there's lots of roads and is not much of a transport unless of course you live in an older city and older city that is kept that infrastructure in a lawyer obviously like New York gave the subways and you in in big cities like London as well you got the tube and no our British rail and feel different ones I know I'm not going am adept there but he answered my point is that armed cities like I grew up in like our Rockhampton we had a tram system that was around for a while and it is not too expensive to run a switch to buses rid of the train tramlines that was in that too expensive to retrofit now so you and the buses barely ran so there was bug all of the tram public transport system in Rockhampton so mind unit in the city this about 70,000 people maybe that doesn't matter much so that is what I want to start with is the size so what how big roughly's attorney then I think you said before Buddhist effortlessness are there is 14,000 people told alloy that covers about 9 mi² of cool so where I live are is in just outside Brisbane is just north of Brisbane is a just north about 30 miles north so arm the area I live in our greater Brisbane in the south-east corner of Queensland is about 3 million people and are one half million people live within Brisbane Star city limits so is a reasonable number of people and that means that it's more it's possible to a public transport system and the reason is that are and I guess before I get ahead of myself so public transport I guess the clerk classification is very broad… Say any public transport will generally have a carriage of some description where be a bus or train or a tram that can carry a large number of passengers and that is usually more than 10 people so anything less than that you looking at it's a cab or it's too small to be considered are high-capacity and therefore it is not economical for public transport so the idea is that public transport is an alternative to private individual methods of getting around because the private individual methods of getting around more expensive and more difficult so the most typical models of succeeded so far trains and buses and icily I buy under only the trains trains typically ulcerative will split it to pieces not I guess some supplies the buses but also the translators externally powered and is usually electric although not always an internally powered which is they carry their own fuel with them like you like diesel now is as a subcomponent undertrained something entrées or light rail transit arm heavy to heavy rail and trams never cut-offs for each of these vary depending upon definition that the heavy rail is multiple tons arm there generally are for longer distance travel and the generally considered to be harder wearing but of course they're more expensive to build ionic usually go faster as well are light rail trains are light rail transit ORL trains are designed to be are not obviously not go as fast be made of lighter materials perhaps not as strong but they're meant for covering shorter small areas more in with more coverage but not quite as much is a trend that typically light rail transit will not share the road so that will be essential in their own travel corridor and sugar to a minute so trams though is where it all sort of really around towns and is where we focusing on is around towns for the moment is transaction stamping horse-drawn which is something that our I didn't realise until I was much older are and it was doing was looking into trams a history of trams and now in Melbourne and are subsequently in the San Francisco was visiting and it's funny it's I have a hard time picturing horse pulling a tram around on a bunch of rails but that's kind of what they did so anyway they then moved to steam power in some cases but electric was really the winner NASA transformed are the tram industry think all that I guess are in Sydney Australia electric trains can elect trams so they can they came in about 1898 to just before the turn of the last century and are having said that though the most amazing trams I've personally written on and I actually called trams knock locally they're called cable cars and its of their course and now in San Francisco and thing I found amazing about the cable cars is because there is no overhead power lines are either not then electric Wally they are electric but they're not electric that's confusing cable cars are called cable cars if if you haven't heard of them you don't have a work is that they actually have a powerhouse in the powerhouses some ways away from the actual lines and it pulls and really really long set of cables and those of cables constantly move through an underground duct system underneath the street just underneath street level and the cable car has a grip that basically clamp sits and attaches itself to the cable underneath the ground and then the cable drags along with it is a fascinating idea it has a couple of advantages because what does is it keeps that the motive power out of the outer cable car just like electric does but it has no overhead power lines and it keeps a lot of that mess off the street because the downside is the longest time it took a while to figure out how to actually cross lines so one cable cars going on one line the other one intersects and crossing over had to come with a mechanism to handle bad and individual patterns and so on but it had one massive advantage to get to a minute the first cable car opened in 1877 and it gradually replaced the horse-drawn trams but when electric trams reduce in 1892 San Francisco arm they started to road into that and mainly because cable cars were estimated cost nearly 6 times as much money to operate an electric originally those arm as I said cable cars they were electric powered when originally they won't have steam powered as the visa these powerhouses that would pull the cables they were boasting power converter crossed electric eventually because it was cheaper but an ENT to maintain but sadly that the at the six times as much is a real problem so eventually cable cars started to lose an electric tram started take over the rounds because it is so much cheaper but there is one area where the cable cars one and they still win and that's over really really steep hills because electric there simply could not climb so when I went to San Francisco I went for a rather a joyride I guess you could call that arm, on the calendar cable cars it was absolutely amazing experience loved it our Occupational Health & Safety dramas seriously a couple ever let people hang out the side like that but this consists what they do their cattle have you been having been a San Francisco I have not cool well if you do gonna cable car I know that they are mainly there now for the tourist population but they are so much so much fun and not cheap but somewhat better anyway so are yet are ones that remain is a three lines left now are bites you anyway so then electric transmitter cable is any cable cars left and the electric trams they yell everyone present was good and like them now try to push more electric trams, more routs and people fighting is like what can I be my cable cars at one of the overhead power lines I get they visually look terrible people you know I know that I climb up on top of trains and grappled them some people my I don't know I would imagine there is a statement that the yet while ice probably was II don't know why no logos that claim held with the intervertebral microwave dish maybe time don't know who you're talking about anyway so Minelli eventually must move on now whistle Kaka whistle eventually diesel powered buses just one because they dig up steep hills pretty much and you know they didn't require the overhead power lines and despite the fact they spewed out horrible exhaust everywhere once argon to dissipate people got over it so buses eventually one so the said now buses bring much cover everything else are there are some parts when I was there arm when I had some trolleybuses which I'll like on the outskirts of of of of Severus's got a pistol gone they did when I was visiting back in 9097 so maybe some will correct me on that but anyway so arm buses are finding is I had never seen a trolley bus till I went to San Francisco was staying in Candlestick RV Park when I was there that's the arm the RV park overlooking Candlestick Stadium and it was our interesting experience because they had a slab of dirt that had grass on it and I was putting a 10 page insight when I went there and of macro camped outside in a much money as you is an intern either deny much money so are was driving to Tempe again and are it would go in maybe an inch and I was going click link link against the year the concrete needs that it was the token piece of turf so you need to pitch a tent meanwhile you could you can put you can place a tent on it but pitching it and holding it down best of luck with that there there was instinct because there were not as a game on an and loud anyway so you could trolley bus into the arm to the outskirts of the CBD in Frisco fascinating when a trolley bus and the pulse came off the dry game out rounds want to amount to build our trolleybuses it is a bus that drives arm on the road like a bus but it's got to be long flexible poles at the back in the manner fibreglass these days but in any case and these things are on big Springs and they connect to a set of power lines to go home overhead balance and that powers the bus the one I was on was particularly smelly and it smelled bad because of the year it was clear they were getting a lot of arctic arcing and they need to do some maintenance and circuit breakers and is on the electric motors there are just edges the ventilation was not a great the whole thing just staying about electric burning smell and how to describe it if you smelled that you know exactly when talking about but you but so very distinct memory for me it was a banana bus to rights as a three axle with that with the squishy xylophone he bit in the middle well yards of middle to Mike two thirds of the way down your so anyway so trolleybuses but the majority buses are diesel so are the cost is vented dry buses they're stuck with the power lies a car going without power lines and of the poles come off like they did on my very first trip on one will exercise everybody down but there's no diesels and crossing the rivulets of theocracy if you don't mind talent okay so we talk about a different methods of the part of public transport but there is a further sub- classification that we can talk about that's our that's a big deal and is all about the routs fixed routs variable routs that are restricted variable routs that are unrestricted before we did talk about that I liked or benefit sponsor and that is Lynda.com now Lynda.com is an easy and affordable way to learn you can instantly stream thousands of courses created by experts in the fields of business software when developing graphic design audio and lots and lots more weight to me list here have enormous library tiles to choose from with new courses and every day to make sure the library is both relevant and up-to-date Lynda.com is used by millions of people around the world and has over 3000 courses on topics like web development photography 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about routs would you pronounce them routs or roots are that's about a 50-50 here Coco to bring your friends okay so fixed routs and it all started before the car where you had the train because you esteem engine was simply very very heavy and need rails to support with good sleepers and good ballast to hold it all together but as engines became lighter the internal combustion engine we had cars we get away from that easterly to have formed roads because the car is still very heavy and a cousin still sinking in the mud when it rained but irrespective the idea is it all started with rails so the problem of course that rails create whether it's a trainer a tram and besides if you go electric power that is in you not caring if you're with you your overhead power lines while they can essentially restrict the movement of the bus the train of the tram they are restricted to a very narrow fixed round and that's a problem because what it means is that you can't visit anywhere you would like you can only visit a fixed number of points you may stop a fixer appoints long battle that that those routs so there is a sort of our twist on this because there's also been a more recent development last day of 34 years call the busway which one of us I had a bus wash available at ridiculously taking a bus that can go on any public road and you making a road specifically just for the bus okay seemed a bit weird to me my thought about what made sense because buses have the thinker busway like a train line except the train can leave the tracks and go where Ross might like to get the advantage of having a highly available highly efficient our transit corridor so it will bypass all the problems of traffic congestion yet so I can't get busway but I still think that it cost effectively it's it's a bit dubious but anyway is an interesting compromise so the idea is though that you know you can't stop in the corridor you can't move into or out of it if you're a trainer a tram or a trolley bus it was a busway yes you can but only a certain number of exit and entry points otherwise would be a busway's bureau so the problem without of course means that although The plus sites is high is more efficient because you're the only traffic in that round which means you can fully control and fully manage the traffic so if you've got trains and trade year you can figure out how many trains are heavy-handed behind you knew have full control you can operate all that is how however you like as the as the government or whoever's controlling the other trains the trams whatever else you fixed corridor and fixed round right that's a big plus boats are that higher efficiency that's all great and allows faster travel between stops in theory but the problem is of course you know it's more expensive because what you've done is you've taken something that used to be land you could turn into a road that anyone can use any locking down and saying now only a fixed kind of vehicle is allowed to use this this that this in this round it now is now fixed no one else can touch it just my trains just my buses that set so that makes it more expensive because we've got a thousand people using one road you can spread the cost of each of those users wearing that road out over those thousand users whereas if you've got a train it's only far more expensive just to have that and maintain exclusively for a small number and is that this is the problem occurs right is what gets confusing is the reason I say that is because you pay for your own vehicle you don't pay for your own train carriage so you know it's kinda like I can't say to you well I'm you pay a fixed registration cost that can fund the roads that you drive your car on all you have an excise on your petrol are or gasoline I should say diesel which ever you fossil fuel of choice or electrons in the case of electricity I suppose it become increasingly the pace now the case with an atrocity excise for electric vehicles who knows I'm sure fire way of taxing an asset pay for upkeep of the roads so bottom line is that are you shoulder the majority of the cost in the vehicle the carriage if you will whereas on public transport you don't so that makes it far more expensive so you have to then have much higher numbers in order to spread that cost so have high numbers you have high volumes which but it was one from the busway's new carpet is make-up on a bus all the trade-offs it's a tough problem right so ultimately ultimately that's the definition of ice postfix fixed routs and are stuck in around a variable rout that is restricted sky combustion a busway server compromise but rather because as well also have have the ability to follow variable routs but they still restricted so if I build myself a vehicle are and it's the high-performance Ferrari you know if you go really fast on a freeway that straight and flat and level made with a few bends someone argued that the fun part either way it's designed to go fast now put on a beach CFI get behind that put dirt road CFI get your insight EA and AMP also although obviously some designed to go on those roads and that's fine of course you need a four-wheel-drive an off-road vehicle somewhat senior sports utility vehicle mind you some who would say an SUV is more for you open monies in days dropped the kids off at school in these days I don't even know that's fair or not but I hear that it was later so I want think about you need a vehicle is designed to go off road and the vast majority vehicles aren't the design for sealed roads or at very least well-maintained well graded our dirt roads gravel roads so our date means that they are still by that definition or they can have variable routs there still restricted vehicles go so the only true vehicles that are variable rout unrestricted vehicles are formal drives and even then if you really want to be picky you still need to knock the trees down right can't just drive four-wheel-drive through a forest amenities 20 trees around like cease to forge a path somehow so the whole idea of being completely unrestricted it's not it's colitis it's a spectrum must a scale if you will wear your stuck on the rails you're completely fixed round to a bus and a busway that has partially affixed rout but then can leave that travel on on sealed roads to get other places and then we going to vehicles individual vehicles that are capable of driving on those roads become gone busway is mind you could argue freeways are a form of that and then a cause that did it then goes further down this colourful drives can travel on unformed rights so you want to go on travel anywhere you like me to go in a aerial travel which will get you later so are you the other thing because of four drives they are not particularly with Cliffside dyspnoea and I get bogged in times of and then another point as well is that I'm not sure what you've got are in North America I never wear experiences but in Australia if on a drive four-wheel-drive on a beach I can't just do it I need a special our permit to do that so i.e. yards especially I think that depends on the beaches here you okay so at right arm because I live nearby the Athenian 20 drive from our live near bribe the island and bribery islands have a in get a day sticker months to go or a an annual sticker and plastic on inside your windscreen grates are annoying round blindspot and you are then allowed to drive on the beach and what that money pays for is there is an access road from the bitumen across onto the actual hard sand on the beach and Robbie on that road is about 1 1/2 km long some like that and I has to be graded like with with a greater savings to be gained and levelled off otherwise eventually the Russell gets so deep that cars and not even a good four-wheel-drive will be able to actually use the road yet but is not just regrading the roads it's also for patrolling the beach in the open and so-and-so for them mentor campsite you may stop bad and so-and-so for which also sometimes attract additional fees if you're staying overnight so you it's not like it's an excellent top of your normal registration for the vehicles they pay once in a registration drive on sealed roads and pay another set of registration to drive it specifically on other beaches so you know and people so I answered terrible the scum of the hand and everything is like while no arm if it if no one pay that licensing and it wasn't to maintain a yet it will fall apart because then you just end up with people making their own roads and they were just drive over sand dunes and tear them up and ascension to blow away and it would erode the coastline and before you know it you've lost the army 100 yards of coastline everyone for their four drives and wasn't me anyway so there are mine that phrase around the same to okay and I've driven on both bribery and Fraser and North strategy are Stradbroke Island so you Fraser is beautiful to awesome being okay to do do do okay so is all the more outcaste so as I say before the great thing about are about roads is that they can carry my many many different kinds of transport and encourage if you like and obviously things like you freeways and motorways they have to restrict so they say while we do our bicycles and we don't want pedestrians on we don't want mopeds on their and is all those things can interference slow down traffic so that the bad things augur ban them your take the year and the non-motorway roads normal roads and if a thing is that a lot of roads are lower freeways are in Los Angeles I picked up this lingo people say surface streets you had an expression before you you and is complements as a an expression to denote that it's not a freeway non-motorway and it's something that in Australia we don't say and I come back here and I've said a few dozen people look to me like I'm insane, how sorry all the streets are on the surface okay so say surface streets, like saying arm yeah on the ground to anyway but are you not until now right so yes so the otherwise of course with licensing is you've got publicly funded roads which might have a government that your car licensing pays for annual toll rates are and you've got to arm and those private toll roads are maintained usually by companies corporations were and are you pay to use them so you go to a tollbooth toll Plaza user throw money in through the law through the air from touch take handmade a person whatever now saw free flow tolling these days and we talk about that before on now on previous episodes and have our works so okay do do do do I think I pretty much set all my say about that in a minute so all this is really really important that we understand all the restrictions about why people then fantasise about air travel to the site air will solve all the problems right because it's completely unrestricted seems a great idea no yes I'm looking for something here are my my initial thought is is not completely unrestricted. There are no still very important places involved with air travel that that are pretty restricted would be where you can take off and or you can land here that's it but every now and then I see these articles are about this person is designing the world's first awesome arm flying car and psych in and 20 years ago as personal helicopters mean a and every so often people have this this dream instantly seems to be an apparently our popular recurring dream that flying will just save all that will but while Gary all these problems could stink our fun flying that way about you having four-wheel-drive I can just go wherever I need to and after takeoff and landing whatever and how it got to be perfect for that off-line can't escape the taking of meaning in our runway you same kind of idea right obviously any flat space to land but apart from that another restrictions so useless in a forest necessarily but in Obion that if you had a car that could fly slightly into the forest and drive the rest away I suppose I don't know but anyway so the problem with air is it's all about being sober capacity and landing so air travel you have to have a large flat clear areas land and if you got a plane that requires a runway because the random was the reason that we do that is because planes are far cheaper are to a lot of people on helicopters sound like a great idea but you just can't have big helicopters and I know the Chinook is a huge helicopter but that thing is also a huge fuel bill and it really is not a very efficient our way of carrying a lot of people the more efficient ways of plain because you planes don'ts place in a cushion of air in a whereas helicopters make their own cushion insensible and aerofoils on helicopter are less efficient for carrying heavy loads than planes are that's just that's just the way to physics works out so I'm not going go there speed so if you do was answering speeds and if you do it and it places travel much much better yes exactly right and because of that are big and it's because of the ER that's because the problem with the leading edge of the blades so it's quite it's it's because leading is the blades slower and I'm not gonna go there I'm not a mechanical engineer and I hated flow dynamics so let's just leave it alone had so are right yes you're right though speed is a big problem so planes are cheaper and faster and therefore more popular so the problem is because then if you got a fixed number of our places that you can actually put an airport in terms of I've got flat straight area to land these things that means I have a finite number of airports so okay so that means that a fine number of airports and it was only a fixed number of plays in the world that I want visit on a plane so obviously the bigger places like you have big cities New York or Los Angeles or Sydney or Brisbane London doesn't matter Pickett pick a big city you name it I have a big airport or several big airports and maybe some smaller airports several regional airports but the idea is that you have a high-capacity plans go to the bigger airports why because it's fast and it's cheaper so the problem with that of course is a creates congestion because everyone then from all the different places flying from where they are in a while all the land is one place so then you take a number because lie land planes one after the other because the turbulence created by the plain front affects the plane behind it and RM watching and watching a video that in the 60s and 70s are testing with some mum with some commercial our test pilots just how close they could land and one plane after the other thing seem like 90 seconds I think is the bar far didn't look it up exactly what think it was about that any closer in time and the vortices created by the plain front have caught because too much turbulence such that the the plane the wings of the plain following it are this too much turbulence for the left and essentially the thing what the plane will start to our stall and obviously that's a bad thing you avoid that so that's a problem not a problem is flight levels and flight levels is essentially A/C a series of of virtual flight bands if you well and there are they carry thousand feet so eastbound are in North America eastbound star of levels westbound is even levels now I'm not sure if this slightly varies globally adding assumptions obviously different but are in air space around different countries you follow the rules anyway what that does is it keeps planes in different directions from crashing into each other so everyone going eastbound is on odd level and westbound is an even level the new far less likely to crash into the basic theory everybody at the sea racially or in the same direction that's right may be different speeds Belize for going the same direction of similar directions then you'll have more warning right you'll see them you pick the sooner anyway now what she would do is imagine all the people have all got their own private aeroplanes and ongoing program multiplying car or a proper helicopter apart from teaching all these people registering as people logging flight hours for these people and then learning how fly safely and everything they have to follow all that imagine how congested those flight levels are gonna get if everyone who had a car was up in the air you à la are back to the future in the sky where innerab initio man with objects bad anyway what my hover car or motherboard demo you hop aboard screw the cargo hospital so the bottom line is that that's the sort of chaos that is far more difficult to manage if your road you have set bounce and the boundaries suddenly become a benefit because it means there's a restrictions limit people and drive up the curb on their vehicle because can damage the tires because their cars are designed to do that was to four-wheel-drive them I got the curb but most normal vehicles that I drive up cabs can damage that the castle stay on the road in the confines of the road that restricts the that the issues that they can cause they can create by not following the rules rules simple rules like stay in your lane stay on the road don't drive the footpath sidewalk because that's generally a bad thing as pedestrians are and I'll get angry and may yell at you as you run them over which is not advisable me to not recommend you do such things and so it never really took off for a long while love those reasons notwithstanding the expense notwithstanding listing all the training it just doesn't seem to work economically either right so there on a smaller scale having your own car and work its affordable you can drive it most places that you want to go your Spennymoor year for dry taking more places you might want to go but flying not the only one it's gonna work is on mass transit routs between large cities through airports is the only way that makes any real sense I will touch on space because I'd see the point that space is big really big anyway joggers guide so arm didn't do do do do yes right so arm yes 747's A380 streamlines flying in and out to live in a major airports and those are that evidence of whether markers pushed that's where that everything is gone and 747 if you want to bring back the D word again this invoice was disruptive big time you know it reduce the cost per seat significantly in 60s it was it was transformative in the airline industry the A380 they hoped Airbus hopes that would help them as well but it turned out that summer it didn't help them enough and they've had terrible sales and their rating back how much they're making in the Dreamliner is paying off because Drew Myers had taken the economy around why because if the world has changed is no longer about necessarily the lowest cost per seat are in terms of moving a huge number of people at once it's about reducing the cost per seat by cutting other costs that keep going up like petrol like fuel are airline fuel aviator your Bosch colleges are kerosene derivative I believe so that that is where the Dreamliner wins because it's made out of a lot of composite sets got our lots of farm fly by wire in its eight snag these lithium batteries on board because the note and of problems but despite those problems and and that the measures that had attacked expense its cost and rectify those issues well the Dreamliner is a winning they've got the getting more orders despite the fact that there was multiple years later they had also the teething problems so Dreamliner orders are much much money like 2 to 3 times more is reading an article in the paper a few weeks ago about this so you know so that that the whole capacity in the cost capacity long harasses only way their wins it never wins in the personal level just doesn't so and that's what I focus on so that's that's the focus of this this whole discussion half okay so disruption to the travel industry now we've covered all of this it's time to finally get to the point of of odds of setting all is ground this ground information are you ready I am ready fantastic which means it's time for a second sponsor RA text extrasensory devices they are an innovative company based in Palo Alto California and they've recently released their all-new laxity for all its an incident like me to attachment your smart phone or your tablet now your photographer and you like take the best possible shot or even if you aspire to be a better photographer precise control of your exposure is critical and figured that out in a reliable and accurate light metre standby lime is can cost upwards of $100 and they can take up a lot of space the camera bag or any other bag you might have been either I'd boundaries and they can be obtained the use the lucky draw aims to solve all these problems by utilising the front facing camera new smart frontier tablet provides accurate readings using its freely available laxity app from the App Store and Google play store lucky for all is easy and 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it only really works of receiver people because you for shipping products back and forth that doesn't work site again his coffee cup your name is on wave to it through the computer screen that's all we ever see done really work but the people it does we just transferring information and that's fine although I do sometimes wonder if your pay I with 3D printing technology and 3D are modelling technology will not doubly things I coffee cups you buy a specifically designed coffee cup design you know when you say by 399 now now is on and then you click buy and it could be spits out a printed copy of your aura of a coffee mug right next year the Star Trek replicator Yep you like replicator yah pretty awesome but arm here I neither know by now I think technology is still a ways to go before we there yet and besides which can you imagine the the other DRM in the air now ardent no psycho if you are if you crack the DRM of the coffee cup that makes we had a leak in the bottle labels of scope for our flowers as that of the handle falls of a disaster after half our home terrible it will be in charge that I to me bad ideas for me rather good ideas and bad ideas anyhow okay so getting back on track personally and of interaction can you leave without personal interaction with other people in the same physical space is taken to that extreme why go anywhere live in your box everything physically delivered to you and you have just changed the travel industry for individuals but the thing is that I'm thinking about it this technology has been around for a while in with with telecommuting this is not a new thing people been able to do this for a long time and it hasn't really taken off in the vast majority people that I see still go to a job in a physical location that I work from home and a problem the tech bubble in text fear that we sort of circulating at times is that it's predominated by people that do actually that are the niche that do stay at home to do work from home predominantly the habit and therefore have time and flexibility in hand and create can create blog posting and arm yard podcasts and so on right so I think a lot of it that the content the perception is skewed yet somewhat it definitely makes it appear more prevalent than it really is yet exactly EA comes back to the thing I was going about the drugstore right go the drug store and ask someone if they're there to buy medicine so yes anyway so I guess my point is that I see Renata as long time ago I was around the time that Marissa Mayer came I see I think of Yahoo and started using Yahoo and started flipping back and said there are yellow to work from home anymore and there was an ice really mean she is mean and I don't like it and cry cry cry and site I totally get why she did it and I and I see working from home is a privilege and in every country that I've worked for its approval as I try very hard not to abuse and it's a sort of thing that's I'd ideal maybe once every 2 to 3 weeks at most for maybe a day or half day and dart its EI it's a privilege is not saying that most people get to do so and the reason is and everywhere the article is a link in the show notes from Texas I rose back in March 2013 so predates pragmatic by fair bit our while little bit anyway six months so I guess anyway and numb bottom line is yet working from home are yet hasn't taken off and is because people want to see you and whether or not you like to think so or not even though there's a lot of geeks are amongst the ranks the listing this truth is that you we still yearn for some degree of interaction in person with other people because were animals we we are social animals we are social creatures and yes there are hermits and yes there are people want to be alone that's fine but the vast majority people don't that's just reality so that I think the people choose not to inner that said we become nicer people did like to stay in a box because this think of all the improvements with health yah the lack of the spread of disease control the spread of illness and I that instead of 100 people using a doorknob to open the meeting room door at work are you would need to do that but you ate how can you draw the line how far do you push it how far you extend it if you have children does that mean you children are homeschooled they were stay at home that interact with the other kids because I have go to school any schooling or learning is done online Yates all completely insular as I okay will easily get food provisions integrate your own food and so are high okay so go down this road going down the isolationist road which is okay well diagram I fix it I want people delivering figs are delivered they could have yours like a pickup from them you where you draw the line so people have just decided that after having this technology for decades and even with the new advances by telling present stuff which is super creepy arm only robots go around really with a person's face on it either I know they're rare but really telepresence dinner so it picked the people voted it just doesn't work they're not interested major technology needs to get better for them to become interested but I don't think so I think it's it's against our human desires whether we believe it or not so I'm happy to be wrong but I'm not sure that I am I think is enough evidence to suggest that that remote work is just not sniffing a takeoff in this in in at the level that which the vast majority people do it and therefore it is an actual disruption you know a handful of people choosing to do so because it's convenient for them does not equal disruption and calluses be clear on that point so if 1% of listeners coming so I work from home it totally works me that's great I'm happy for you and in some respects I will jealous… Be honest you're the Minardi okay that's the reality so okay so we are taken off the table so that is not really a disruption that is likely to happen and discuss it happening people do is to social so what's next if we limit ourselves the fact we have moved from point A to point B how we do or how we relieve the pressure points for that so let's just flash our public transport and pressure points and public transport so what is it about public transport Museum had human experience in public transport and is happy happy judgement on public transport your life arm large-scale public transport late buses and staff maybe once or twice polish yeast wow okay fair amount in taxicabs and staff) of a tactical bed to spend some time in my youth driving a taxicab for a while seriously that's an interesting story when we could talk about tags in a minute the more will definitely talk about darkening a note about that so I catch the train every day well I say every day five days a week usually end up doing that now for the last seven years prior to that I drove our main existing a lot of site work are and I say last seven years there was a good year and 1/2 that that was predominantly site and not continuously so it's been a variety but vast majority the last decade I've been on a train five days a week for an hour at a time and down as Andre said insane account there is a set its account I can't do the Bella Lugosi thing anyhow so today I sidetracked myself think about Bella ghosting okay and that that was some Dracula to buy the way way back old Dracula dude with a funny voice accent things around J admit say or share okay good so arm in HarperBusiness have no idea who Helen talking about probably okay to do the job loss must transform sorry ISI Kate Brightside to take trains every day and what are my pressure points first and obvious pressure point is cleanliness or lack thereof now I can I train into crapshoot I could show up and sit down as bubblegum in my seat generally doesn't happen are there could be if it's raining to be water you are sloshing all around the train carriage and I say sloshing is not sloshing but when the doors open and this heavy rain rained into the carriage and logger carriages and the trains that I like travelling and frankly of travel trains or in a world so there were very similarly designed and drained and is not particularly great because a lot there was no hose amounts as people don't realise this bold dull typically will hose them out and which means that our you have a good seal on the floor and are anyway bottom line is that when the train speeds up the water puddle will flow backwards because obviously you know momentum and momentum inertia and when the train slows down stop it'll slide back the otherwise it is this puddle of water this trailer going back and forth up and down the train carriage down past feeder renown and slippery heavy rain understand that's another pressure point you because you got graffiti the only people spell food in the previous post bring food and drink on the train people yes of course but people do don't day you and it's not a rubbish bin or trashcan yet it is for some people and I am not pointing fingers at specific age demographics or kinds of people that would be no generalisations it doesn't matter the point is that it happens so into crapshoot I could wander into a train and it could be the pristine perfectly polished marble diamond and gold and gold encrusted diamond encrusted gold whatever way around Europe do that looking like an apple watched Sapphire coded doesn't matter beautiful polished beautiful train but let's be honest is not Ivy than it is rarely ever gonna be even close to that so variable quality so if I have my own personal vehicle that I control my control is cleanliness mind you can be a bad thing considering how often I don't clean my car and I probably should but the truth is I know I'm getting myself into you know you so I are all the food that is in my car I brought into all my kids did and then crushed in the seat and maybe clean it now smells funny to our trains John so trains trains trains planes and trains the strength so okay next thing is next prior pressure point with trains is regularity I can jump in my vehicle and go where I want when I want whenever I want and he is the caveat traffic permitting but if you take traffic off the table and assume the traffic is not an issue and is always around to get your point from point A to point B what happens the train well trains are never going be more regular than their capacity can permit or the available marriage of carriages can permit therefore it will be fixed or maximum duration you cannot reduce it beyond a certain point based on your investment now one thing that frustrates me is that the ER Queensland rail are was merged in a comical Translink in Brisbane several years ago and what ideas they tried to integrate a timetable tween ferries buses and trains can argue well are very successful or not the one the optimisations they do and ended back and kill Queensland rail days was that they will put on more trains and more staff in terms of drivers and guards on those trains during peak periods during off-peak periods they trains only run every 30 minutes so I miss a train of iron five seconds later a trainer door shut the takes off in your standing on the platform and you're shaking your fist and making rude gestures perhaps arm swearing itself or can you so I think it has all happened a few times never happen totally never happened I'm not speaking from experience or point is that what happens at maybe someday you miss your train okay you wait another 29 minutes and 55 seconds for the next dam train is assuming it shows up on time and it leads got better locally anyway that you are so in a ceiling running on time if you have a car you can get to the car and leave at that point there is no waiting again traffic traffic notwithstanding buffer trains it's terrible right half an hour between seriously and I know European listeners are listening this shaker headedness as terrible in a Sunday trains and in Germany run every 2 to 3 minutes in a really Japan you know they run super regular and I sell I've told them my mates from Joe from Germany I said yeah Mel the day half hour between trains their eyes pop out of their skulls like it's like why bother running a trade or while you walk well behind heavy Australia is but the point is that you it's terrible right so the duration of the trains has to be regular enough such that people don't feel it is easy to take their own vehicle so that's an express point is duration and it varies based on time of day but still duration is an issue Pressure point and this is one way trains cannot win and that in trains trams and buses with poles in the mean their electric driven they all fail on this one and nannies they cannot cover the same physical point to point our area so they can get you from terminus determinism multiple points in between and if you add more cross connecting rounds or wraps the lady go in a circle around a large area to bypass then essentially they force you to have more transfers to cover that greater physical ground physical area and even then it's still not gonna be as good as a car can't take you generally from door to door and buses are better still because they can while the best of it buses are better because that you can there are more buses carrying less people but that means you can optimise a covering more area which is what they do so the idea is you get closer to your house and rather watch walking 20 blocks from the train station to your house you now to walk five blocks from the nearest bus stop to your house so those are arguments for the public transport is also pressure point if you're stuck with trains and I'm stuck with trains his buses don't run this far out take me all main city and in fact the only buses that run past my door is a handful of buses and may and they take forever to get the train stations with me to drive so I drive my car to the train station catch a train in the city and then walk from the train station city to work side of everything except bus the bus and okay so our talk about buses and that the right so our personalised transport because it's clean and safe it's on demand you don't have to wait are and is essentially that is why people prefer it okay yes it cost more money if you take public transport for 10 years it will cost you less money in total improvement any city I can think I've dived across the #is expensive to be a commuter in Brisbane I can tell you it's one of the most expensive places to park your car in the world as well and there is no way I have run these numbers sometimes it is not funny but driving a car will always cost you a lot more money than taking public transport that's just reality and in the vast majority of high-density cities that is the case so because younger fact and everything right you factor in gasoline cost remains in the car the depreciation the vehicle gave money by cast dust appreciating the care of if ever trained appreciates he carelessly promised benefits fair they can buy many trainable money to make enough money in theory right or you could put a fresh coat of paint a four year old train and pretend that it's it's still good and thank you Translink that anyway so are where are we up to write again so at the point now where people prefer their own private transfer because it's customisable it's on demand they know their transport is they know it is available and is in hand and they have control of it up to a point even our costs more money the car is always be more popular and the question is therefore okay now it with every if we agree that all of this is true where's the disruption gonna happen how can it happen what can be disrupted that's what I find interesting and if you don't walk with me up to this point the rest of it makes no sense so thank you for sticking with media listener if you're still listening okay so our first thing is people say okay first disruption is kit cars right I can wear the acquisition technology and the point where people will be out of print their own car designs and build their own cars you know in the not too distant future and I saw this on twitter and Caer shook my head and didn't get because 70 casa years ago long time the problem with kit cars is our estimate is one people will not know how to build them there while walking by car drive it out that I know how to assemble a car imagine walking into your local arm Dodge dealer Chrysler or arms GM or the thinking of American brands how maximising once Holden whatever yellow can be a local car dealer and say I would like the latest model blah and the like it's right here he is a spanner no I'd like one assemble all that extra should be sorry some assembly required payouts) is not included pet gasoline not included wise actually funny the first take sometimes they throw that in but sometimes this dingy is enough to get to the gas station anyhow bending over its newer secondhand is what I found right so people and how Dylan people don't want to actually build them either because they're lazy that is why dry that's a given point to point be having a kid does not need Edna's not imply that I want to actually assemble the damn thing next thing is I you really I trust that you've built it correctly what he Mr Iraq opinion I rack an opinion or opinion they were a worry more about that that the guy driving down the road next to me whether or not he got is correctly that's not a very good point do I trust that they built it correctly so the thing is that people realise you buy kit cast list be certified before it can be registered need to be inspected right you can't just build a kit car and on the road you don't have that thing inspected certified and put out there yet before in drive our public road as the rules otherwise driving unregistered vehicle you do that risk your life in a racetrack go for your life many immediate that you can so you know what unites Nightingale said people I would go through all that the certification BS that is don't there is wide by car driver so I do not see kit cars 3D printing of anything to be any kind disruption in the future because that is not what people as a pressure point people people think about ways of reducing cost or maybe when it comes to manufacturing technology that sort of thing yelling modular vehicles as a whole bunch of other reasons one is not really much of a disruption necessarily because if it was a disruption how we make and engines plug and play engines wise and that thing see come it'll make an engine like a K series engine will go to multiple different vehicles but why not every damn vehicle and the reason is because the powder weights can be different on different vehicles I will have a big heavy vehicle on a four-wheel-drive açai honour and SUV the slight well electric car well is different options because there's different trade-offs I would differentiate myself from my competition where's the incentive for me to have a common engine even the same manufacturer don't have common engines and all their own vehicles there are too many optimisations to be made to many compromises are made in standardising which is why that doesn't happen so that's not a disruption either so are you getting sidetracked on trying keep to the script as a script is not really smaller four-page random collection of ideas to publish this building an idea of how bad my nice-looking nation about that electron the illusion that were only illusion is an allusion I think I think you shall a lot by the crew and that scared disappointed disappointed thing so Nottingham is my soon enough potentially anyway so do do do do where we up to standard that better than I did okay so let's talk about pressure points on a personal vehicle since the pressure points on public transport can be addressed with more money so when I say that I mean if you had at someone on every single carriage of every single train whose job it was to pick up all the rubbish after everyone left the train or even after the dirty person left the train or the eye to clean up graffiti the Internet was sprayed hotly before it was sprayed all the doors scratched all the young whatever order mop the floor as soon as the rain came in you could have a pristine lean maintained carriage but you have to add a lot more money and of course you do that you make it less cost-effective which then means that it's not going to be are feasible so I think it's generally accepted that after 100+ years of a lots of public transport that ain't happening okay you not gonna disrupt that because economics prevents you it is this not happen though the only frontier that is that is capable of being really disrupted is private transportation so we disfigured we said that kit cars throw that away that can help so then what is taxis thing that taxis are attached is a is is like it's a cross between our its commercial transport it's not public although there may be someone somewhere someone somewhere that some countries it has public-private public taxis but I don't think so are certainly part government regulated but not necessarily in a Sumitomo hole was that one there was a news about our its nap and you can ask to come and pick you up and dial maybe taking some of them are new was accordion rather over and over now that one either other whatever their however is pronounced so are is a taxis gunsight is the same problems down a taxi driver how clean they keep their taxi anti-tax interview been in web web bits and pieces and falling off young and old darling in the camps that would be several you mountain cabs and smell funny are I have I been in cabs where the doorhandles are a loose one of the doorhandles fell off and removing seriously out the window handle sorry when I handle fell as a result wind up wind down window you so the eight annual same for how you drove a taxi wants now that's an interesting story it is important for a second are allowed or allowed all upset about it it was interesting I met a lot of interesting people arm I was annoyed by a lot of people K it had its perks were that of the Delilah downsides are about a year maybe two how relatively near you how regularly we drive are at least 45 days we were now serious debt which was it your own taxi was a taxi company to heart now it was AA was a self-employment and ADL Europe basically like an independent contractor and you lease the car from that the taxi company is related to dispatch service in several models and that's the moment when the most popular ones as well be sure mechanical supercars are most of the wines here in definitely in this area and I think it's pretty common I'll already US most of their tomorrow typically radio with the Crown Victoria is more than anything usually typically old police chorus that they fight the book inductions after the police put them out of service you CCing it had cut sharks cup motor gear okay cool thanks that something another again so recognising that taxis don't solve these problems and also quite expensive especially for longer distances and they date they lack the immediacy you have to do call them and I to come to you which when you're in the ED central business desert district of Middletown knots a big deal or a few large venues knots a big deal about time of day and the something going on but if you're at home at the suburbs and sticks like I am well you can wait 2030 minutes sometimes a taxi about taxes don't show up so it's a sort of thing that I yeah I don't see taxis as being any kind of you and and it wasn't really much of it as it was more of a disruption to the taxi and tend to destroy a disruption of the taxi industry more than it was actually a major disruption to the entire transportation Street for individuals so great pressure points back to pressure points private transport what are the pressure points and are not talking about cost of the cost is obviously an issue because always be an issue make me a cheaper colour does the same job yes please of course that's con obvious that's not that's not gonna be that of the issue okay solicitor about the niggling annoying things refuelling that's a pressure point every so often on a run if you're a to get out need to put put a liquid magic liquid into my vehicle that magically makes it go further until it runs out of fluid and are together ample more magic fluid in Anacostia Electric are you charged them thing don't you so either of these options involve connecting a cable or a hose usually attached to a pump are and honestly the only way around that is wireless charging methods and solar to the idea is of course that if we can get solar panels to a point at which they have sufficient efficiency and of course you you not parking underground parking garage which would be less than ideal for that purpose then you know you really down a wireless charging was an inductive wily inductive charging plate you would drive out to a top in your garage or in your car park arm in a parking lot at the supermarket shopping mall or your place of work and that would mean you would issue you could almost forget about almost long-distance travel you still have to deal with but you know the idea is technology eventually will get to what we get away from pumps get away from hoses there are flammable stuff and that that revolution will eventually happen but for the moment the technology that we've got it's still very expensive and therefore its off the table but as costs come down in electric vehicles battery packs wasn't a charging technology gets a bit better yummy obviously we talk about was charging previously and it has it's always only Lossie in the same way that underground power is now the preference over rather than overground overhead power same will be true of one of inductive charging it's only a matter of time so will where the loss because of the convenience okay lease majority people well and make me my words about the fact that the arm my sad name was Mount Corliss and whilst mice have no work no practical benefits from efficiency point of view they don't that's what I meant by the way court. If you want and is embedded in our okay so user interface and is the one that I that has been cut been kicking around recently in a psych you know the Apple car had their the Apple car now how this gets started Vic tell me the timeline that you do is you understand our ability that started with the Wall Street Journal article I think some of the patients somewhere claimed that it had been sated there was a vehicle that was unmarked I believe and how hard she cameras and sensors on it are and it was found to be leased by Apple yet I believe an hour and saying all these facilities that Apple is building will build has built know someone who knows someone who is building who has built he might build and they could be used to build cars he had a adorably see that I don't either and is it's just here on the cell's it's always possible okay I can't definitively say that they're not but a far better question is why would they be debtors everyone says well yards peripheral okay yes peripheral sorter the car is peripheral for your arm your device your personal Internet communication devices go whenever smart phones and some I know that people like to say that deny to say because it sounds clever or because they're getting primary utility confused with secondary utility that truth is the primary purpose of the vehicle is and always shall be to move persons or cargo from point A to point B its knots to connect your iPhone into your it just isn't that a secondary piece of functionality now you look at something like the Apple watch why Apple developing a watch they're doing it to extend the functionality of their iPhone to and to add new notification technologies there is very little that Apple can gain by going to the trouble of building a vehicle just to extend the functionality of an iPhone or a watch on iPad get very little and people I'd think underestimate just how hard it is to build design build a car we look at how much Tesla has had to go through yet there's a lot of regulations not just in the United States around the world and they're all different in no having a car that is certified safety rated are environmentally rated all of those things approved for use in all these different countries left-hand drive models right-hand drive models in Australia need our site indicator lights and the damn things right when indicate left and right you have a siding coincided vehicle so whenever cars come to Australia this part of Europe you don't need those well you have here is they can be retrofitted to the car you all that sort of local regulations and stuff all those little details the barrier to entry the investment required is enormous and you ask yourself what is the benefit what is the feature that is so much better that makes it worthwhile with the watch I can kinda see it because the tactic engine we talked about this before on episode 38 is a sign tree I I suggest you go and listen to that if you're if you're curious had listened to so the truth is though that I cannot see that Apple's experience in building good user interfaces and evidences of the divine desires how it works okay let's look at a car showy and how it works and it's user interface basically speaking it's because steering wheel for steering okay how you make a steering will better arm with the original parish steering with a pretty significant addition to it okay aside from that I narrowly feel a whole lot of is nothing what can you do young Elizabeth it's a great analog to what is actually happening with the car so you can easily feature bullets easily learnable Barry Fred has signed great haptic feedback yet welcome casting arm so in I'm saying is like the steering wheel the pedals are simple and straightforward okay they work and all the buttons knobs and switches and indicator lights on the dashboard they only sharpen as a problem is no analysing yet God I cannot I am ruing the day I am dreading the day I should say when we start getting ads on the damn display now car you won't see that I'd be worried about their net purchase was great right now that is an inactive purchase sorry you've used all your brakes you can't you can't work had Sydney hacked into your feet to character arm password you can use touch ID before we can break right so look bottom line is there's really only one thing that you can do that that makes any sense at all to improve the user interface of the vehicle it's pretty much gone as far as it can go and whoops I forgot to mention the one big innovation recently that heads up displays right may start our heads up displays I started out on none on the fire jets and they gradually made their way into the time vehicles to the point which now are driving around a previous V and it's a little heads up display at that shows you the speed and sky nifty feature we keep you put your farm over the controls and steering wheel as a control steering were mounted on a slight depression if I'm not enough to push the button indicates on the head-up display which but it is someone to go take eyes off the road so very cool eliminations in (eight it is nice is a nice touch head-up display itself is rather small out any small area but only needs to be small and shows you current speed and when you turn the engine on if you happen to have a be looking at the first her three or four seconds it says welcome to previous V might hear thanks great to be here anyway so head-up display great but look is the one thing a gate the user interface currently isn't actually much of a problem that needs to be solved when people say the user interface needs to be fixed up tournament user interface of driving the vehicle the talk about the user interface of I will be able to arm going navigate like setting address in my satnav that's a bit of pain the neck right setting are doing my are going through music and and and in integrating my iPhone for my android phone whatever into the steering wheel controls less is the question of standardisation is there really is a phrase to be improved because forgot car playwright sets run its present scorecard playwright so that's gonna help but the truth is that's not a disruption right he really isn't so everyone talk about an actual disruption the next big disruption really is gonna be a self driving car that's where the future lies next question from that is what would Apple be developing a self driving car and again I go refer you back to okay Apple know nothing about that the Apple watch is built on iOS is built on our I was from the iPhone which is built on arm I was 10 which is built on next step which is comes from our as a next step is some God I can't believe I've forgotten the name of the company I was neck I was next it was open step right was not near was named the company God demoing a sound so dumb let's chat out next thank you Next step is blanked durability at the night for me at pasture motivator are so it's all been incremental and is all based on a code platform that has evolved gradually over a long period of time neither has any do with with automation based on sensory devices right comes in it's a massive learning curve it's a totally different area of our of kinetic modelling of a it's just you know it's hard okay it takes years and years and years to get that right is not something that you can do secretly not easily so I would think that then he would say are well-made part of a similar bill like a kit and a psychological have them so I myself drive by apples and like that or who was gonna do that yahoos gonna do that is that that's the sort of thing that you know this so many holes in ice can't get my head around why that makes any sense at all that the biggest thing is that it doesn't even begin to fit most of Apple's current product strategies they are making and their marketing very high quality major so when I use this term it's not meant to say that there are no good products by any means but that they're working on consumer disposable frequently upgradable items for the most part yes and Corris don't really fit that bill know they do not sell it I can't sit here and definitively tell you whether or not Apple is or isn't making a car that self driving but I would suggest that it is extremely unlikely however I want to learn more about the supposed applecart I want instead talk about self driving cars that actually were talking about is a general topic so why is that such a disruption will think about I have now been freed from the requirement of the steering wheel in the pedals I can now so destination and go and I can then essentially interact with other people are no longer have to be sitting for what I could sit sideways as a driver I could sit backwards which means I don't actually have to have exceeding anymore I can have variable seating I could move around inside the vehicle if I had to maybe not advisable there may be regulations against that certainly the early days of technology but you eventually there will be like a warning indicator to get back in the seat maybe there will be restrictions with our with restraints such that you are not allowed to act to get out of your seat but you see can physically like slide turn and and reoriented sausage always still restrained in case of an unexpected accident are but you know times are forthright so there's there's a whole bunch of different options a bit extra flexibility that was never put previously possible and anything about things you can't do any driving right so I can't text on my phone is not legally or safely are yet I can't read a newspaper account type on laptop or I can't do emails or the business meaning like that except it's talking on the phone even that's considered to be dangerous to think about all the accidents related to that that would then just be eliminated instantly I think the attraction should be pretty obvious that there if we can get that right self driving cars that is the next big disruption it's going to happen is only looking to companies are actually proven definitively working on this then Google is probably the most well-known but there are others and less let's not pretend that Google was the 1st to this party so the thing is that having a radar built into our cars is actually like for emergency braking is actually been around for quite a while so top-of-the-line cars eventually got the semiautonomous self driving capability amidst well self stopping capability against anyway are A+ more recently automatic parallel parking that's become a thing so about F5's years ago identified six years ago arm first cast came out with that and you could just pull up your car parallel nurse and pushbutton will automatically reverse Uighurs reverse power parking is widely considered the most difficult, parking for a vehicle in my first driving test yes I did fail that syndrome Tessa aced the arm they may be do it twice to make sure wasn't a fluke though he admitted to me after the test and the second time so that he did he did he said people again do it again and I'm like breaking out in a cold sweat and looking in through the side of my eyes on my arm you sure did I miss something up and look at my position Mike notes Gerd anyway I automatically then get lucky yet exactly he was making sure because he was unfortunately the same guy that arm tested my driving six months previously it's a long story and not one for the show senior okay so we are out to right were up to our wrapping up on self driving cars but is more about self driving that some people don't realise our combine harvesters in the farming industry they'd been GPS tracked the years there self driving but obviously you don't have other combine harvesters hopefully produce your gonna run into so that's less of an issue arm a mining haul trucks we talked about this previously as well I think an episode where the mining haul trucks are also GPS tracked that there self driving in and out of the pits because what was happening was targeting a minor issues went haul trucks are going sometimes had an accident going over the side sometimes you was considered to be too dangerous going in around round round circles going down his enormous pits going deep bow down to the ground his diamond mines and sign the really deep while they wanted to make it safer so they can put GPS in them and self drive them in and found that they could driving the retracts they kept making big deep deep ruts destroying the rides so that I had to introduce random error into it so that it wouldn't form ruts and as long story our greatest the grade the roads so when you're building a road those got these big GPS is outside of the now so they actually track it so that the roads are graded straight and level so this is not new technology it's only new new technology in terms of being autonomous to a point which you could take it out on a public road and these refinements are far more complex because you gotta deal with lane changing other traffic pedestrians stoplights all those things are not problems for greatest haul trucks or combine harvesters so we've come a long way with a long way to go but that is truly autonomous no external assistance using everything from GPS radar ultrasonics that only become possible more recently the technology will continue to improve and that's with the next big thing is coming from and can start out being a stumbling block because a lot of states and territories and countries don't permit autonomous vehicles to be driven on the roads at all in fact in America only California Michigan Florida and Nevada J Nevada they allow it in Australia none nowhere allows it yet although I read an article in the shadow South Australia is considering amending amending the laws are trying to because a strum seven strays long known South Australia and Victoria to major automobile manufacturing or whether were rather whether manageable or of the Manufacturing places in Australia so anyway we'll see thinking about amending the law and actually manning a law to different things always still happens and is also other issues of litigation test cases for injuries labelled or damage to property through incorrect action of said self driving vehicle and that scare off a lot of insurance companies and so when I can ensure you in no sign a waiver now I don't know how that's can be handled that need to be dealt with somehow otherwise that'll be a showstopper yet starting technologically speaking take legalities of the table and legislative issues of the table it is ultimately the outcome that's where we going that's where it's going to be and if you're in if you're making vehicles that's where you need to be going to that's the truth Tas are working on it is not very public about details Google in very public about the details of what a shame so far is very impressive although it's probably very impressive in a very limited subset of streets there that's yet although I did read a thing once that it completed late many many hours at all remember the figure but and it had only been involved in very few minor accidents and I think that they were mostly I think most of them were attributed to the tether the person inside the vehicle and intervened it in somewhere another accosted and I think I read about one incident were somebody else and hit the Google vehicle you so ultimately because can't because electronics will always be fast electrons and actuators will always react faster than human brain are and in our muscle system because our eyes have to see it the single have to go to the brain the brain is to pass the information and then it needs to tell the muscle to reactor nerve endings go get this into the muscle must last a contract in order to jump on the break all that takes time measurable time and reaction time as assuming you're paying enough attention a notice exactly when you need a break exactly right so there are so many problems that this solves unfortunately people have oddly built up this belief that people are more trustworthy the machines while maybe trust was wrong were reliable will see and I look forward to it I will forward that to be awesome but you know this you and and I think maybe 1010 years I said that the day bad decade away probably based on how fast going before it can become some imaging as an option fee of electric America is a regular budget yet this me much caveats and exclusions and is in no luck there sign and I will set the I think we workplaces with this discussion right before we fully and show arm I have an announcement to make arm about pragmatic arm it is my intention now to 1 in a few episodes time are to end the show are my reasons for it are purely personal are its a lot of time and a lot of effort for me to make pragmatic and whilst arm I excite my when responses are I do a lot of prep as people know arm I it all myself I saw myself arm you are also responding to feedback is an ever-increasing amount of feedback I was try to respond are that takes time all that is personal time that up until recently has been more plentiful shall we say it's one of those things that work is gone very busy and is I become very mindful of the fact that and I don't I don't want to neglect my other responsibilities after my family responsible as well and making a show like this is it is a lot of work this is not just you and I show up in we just you know shoot the breeze for an hour to posted and were done bunch of stuff we've seen in the news for the last week that's not what pragmatic is I specifically didn't want to make a podcast like that I want to do something better and unfortunately better means more effort more effort means more time and more time is something that I don't have so as of our this episode is episode 58 arm where going I'm going to be doing another are fine websites so the last episode will be put out in the last week of March this year and is attribute our it's my intention to Iraq show our and will not be back so arm yet in a tomb adjuster at this point arm I'll be releasing an article on tech distortion and are I will link to ensure notes are the chances are that goes into detail Samira are without justifiable access to go so in that vein as always thank you more about this you can reach me on Twitter and to and my psychic distortion.com is whether hosted along with my writing and if you like to see any feedback please use the feedback form a website and as we also follow a position announcement another way stuff I'd also like to thank my host because they can phone me on Twitter advocates more I'd also like to thank two sponsors for this episode firstly live.com is anything you'd like to learn about and you're looking for an easy and instantly thousands of business software web development design lots more kickstart your New Year and challenges of something you visit elderly NDA.com/pragmatic and they tried this something for everyone 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People

Vic Hudson

Vic Hudson

Vic is the host of the App Story Podcast and is the developer behind Money Pilot for iOS.

John Chidgey

John Chidgey

John is an Electrical, Instrumentation and Control Systems Engineer, programmer, podcaster and runs TechDistortion and the Engineered Network. John has produced and appeared on many podcasts as well as Pragmatic.

What Happened to Mastodon? You can reach me on the Fediverse as explained here, just search for me on your instance of Mastodon, Misskey or Pleroma and you’ll be able to follow/remote follow me wherever you are!